Civil War?

If the Road Map to peace proposed by the Bush team is not successful in bringing peace, it will at least have been successful in reshaping the conflict in Israel/Palestine. It seems that the conflict is now a four-way fight. By sponsoring Abbas, who is more committed to U.S. approval than public approval and therefore more committed to working peacefully, the U.S. has split the Palestinians more than ever before. There has been conflict in Palestine between accommodationist and rejectionist branches since 1989 - but Arafat was such a central figure that he absorbed all the criticism from both sides. Now, with Arafat tied up in the back of the boat, the hardliners and doves are staring each other in the eye.

Likewise, on the Israeli side, the sudden American effort - the first since 2000 - to force peace has made the possibility of a nonviolent solution a lot more real to many centrist Israelis, who are willing to trade their claim to land they don't live on for security in the land they do live on. They realize that assassinations of Hamas leaders lead to deaths among Israeli mothers, fathers, babies, and friends - not among Israeli politicians or Shin Bet operatives. Hence the poll today in Israel showing that most Israelis oppose the government policy of continued assassinations.

I won't venture to guess what the four-camp situation will do in the long run, but I have to say I think it'll be better, since it'll allow both Israelis and Palestinians to side with their respective peace camps without appearing marginal or traitorous. It feels like there has to be peace, because the alternative is unthinkable, but that's what Clinton said three years ago, precipitating the worst three years of violence in Israel's history.