Election 04 > Senate Races > South Dakota

The highest-ranking member of a party is safe in his seat, right? South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle has occupied his current seat since 1986, and he'd risen to the height of Senate Majority Leader when the last election downsized his party and his influence by putting him in the minority. However, in 2004 not only does he have to help out Democratic candidates for the Senate across America, he has to defend his own seat as well.

A state that last voted for a Democratic president in 1964 but still has an all-Democratic congressional delegation, Republicans have long seen South Dakota as fertile soil to extend their base of numbers in the Senate. However, Republican John Thune, who gave up his seat in the House to run against Tim Johnson in 2002 and lost in a nailbiter, is back for more against the Senate Minority Leader.

Researching this race, I found that I'm not the only one interested: the Washington Post ran a long story on the race this morning, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee is also watching the news. The Washington Times reports poll data suggesting an extremely tight race.

The obvious question in this race is why Thune should be able to expect that he can do better in 2004 against the senior Senator when he lost out to the much less powerful Johnson in '02. A few factors have moved into his favor: the Democrats have lost the Senate, making Daschle a shadow of the force he was in '02 and forcing him into an often negative role. Also, with Bush expected to poll over 60% at the top of the ticket, many wavering farmer-Democrats may be pulled over to the Red Side for this other race of national significance. Lastly, as the Washington Post suggests, voters may see the race as a referendum on Tom Daschle, voting him up or down without great consideration of the challenger. All of these factors have already made South Dakota's a close race, and one that could damage the Democrats not only numerically, but also symbolicly.