Battle of Falluja

American and Iraqi troops invaded the residential neighborhoods of northern Falluja this morning, and swarmed through with lighter-than-expected resistance. The NYTimes has a helpful graphic, showing a satellite image of the town and the direction of the U.S. assault.

By invading the oldest, most difficult neighborhoods first, I surmise that U.S. commanders are expecting Resistance tactics to follow the familiar form of soft & fluid initial fighting falling back to a toughened kernal. By pushing them south to newer parts of the city, which are simpler for outsiders to navigate, they'll make it simpler to close the deal. In Najaf, where Resistance headquarters was the great mosque, these tactics were more difficult to implement.

Another new tactic has been giving up the element of surprise weeks before an attack. In a war where civilian casualties are more damaging than Coalition casualties it's important to give civilians all the time - and prompting, in the form of bombs - they could possibly need to evacuate. It also trims the ranks of the Resistance, and lets uncommitted members escape with their lives.

These tactics won't necessarily translate around the world. Iraq is a phenomenally easy place to invade (as the Assyrians, Hittites, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Mongols, Turks, and English can attest), because the terrain offers zero protection to a guerrilla resistance. In Afghanistan, a two-week bombardment would have emptied the city of guerrillas - and they would have disappeared into the mountains. In Iraq, not only is the terrain hostile to guerrillas, but it is friendly to the high-tech invaders. Thus, the Resistance knows their best - their only - chance is to hide among the civilians. Just think how difficult it would be to resist if the invaders placed no value on Iraqi life!

For now, look for an American victory, with greater success than in the Battle of Najaf because of increased efforts at creating an airtight cordon to catch fleeing militants, and presumably to prevent any from escaping with their arms, as they did so egregiously in Najaf.