The Federal Republic of East Africa

How has this slipped under the radar? Three of Africa's healthier economies are joining forces on an eight-year timetable to create a federal "superstate" comprised of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Labor market disruptions could follow the first changes, due next month, which will eliminate immigration limitations, inter alia. It is important, however, to do this early, since it will promote on-the-ground integration ahead of political federation in 2010 and elections in 2013.

Rwanda and Burundi want in as well, and the Big Three are bringing them along as observers, but are wisely unwilling to marry into that belligerent (Rwanda) and internally conflicted (Burundi) family. Ultimately, it would be a very good thing for the Small Two to join: being part of a federation would dilute the control of either ethnic group over the other because all would be part of a wider pan-East-African control structure.

The new federation would include 95 millions, even without the 14 million Rwandese and Burundians, making it the second-largest African entity. This may pose difficulties both political and economic, for a host of reasons, but the long-term gains should outweigh short-term problems. Free trade, economies of scale, and greater international bargaining power will help the nascent federation economically. Likewise, the democratic political structure will be reinforced by integration. It is much more difficult to stage a coup in a large, multilevel government than a tightly controlled one.

One interesting facet of the new political structure is outlined in The Nation (Nairobi's daily):

Seats in the federal Parliament will be shared out on the basis of representation in the home countries and will therefore echo the power of each party in the individual states.

This arrangement, vaguely reminiscent of the old U.S. Senate, will force parties to integrate across each state, though we could see the emergence of something like Canada's Quebecois Party, which would be an detrimental development.

But for now, good luck to the three partners in this marriage - here's to peace, prosperity, and progress for East Africa!