Election 04 > Presidential Race > Polls

A new Gallup poll was released today, showing virtually no change in the candidates' standing. Bush polls at 50%, Kerry at 47%. The numbers change to 48%, 46%, and 4% when Nader is included. They also found that 17% were "swing voters", who admit that they have no opinion or may change their minds before November 3rd.

Since May, the race between Bush and Kerry among likely voters has varied within a small range -- with Kerry having a six-point lead in early June, and Bush a four-point lead at the end of July. Gallup polls among likely voters.  Although Bush's lead in the current poll is within the poll's margin of error, Bush has maintained this lead in three successive polls, with a combined sample size of more than 2,000 likely voters. This consistency of support suggests that Bush enjoys a real, though small, lead among likely voters nationally. The race is tighter among registered voters. Kerry receives 48% support to Bush's 47%, while the numbers were reversed in the Aug. 9-11 poll. In the July 30-Aug. 1 poll, each candidate received 48% support. All these results suggest that little has changed since the Democratic National Convention took place in Boston during the last week in July, and that neither candidate has an advantage among all registered voters.

As close as this election is, InstantReplay is predicting a landslide. While the popular vote will undoubtedly be within a few percentage points, IR is going out on a limb to predict that a lot of states will swing one way or the other together - not opposite each other, as in 2000. These states will almost all go together, and whoever carries them will be president:

Florida, North Carolina, New Mexico, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine. This bloc represents 125 electoral votes out of 270 needed to win. Bush has about 196 "safe" electoral votes, and Kerry 217, so an even split of the swing states would favor the Democrat, but I don't think it will come down to that. Data source: LA Times VoteTracker.