Catastrophic Success

David Ignatius has an accurate opinion piece in the Post today. He finds the reasonable middle ground on the argument about Bush's responsibility for the democratic stirrings in the Arab world.

There's an obscure branch of mathematics known as "catastrophe theory," which looks at how a small perturbation in a previously stable system can suddenly produce dramatic change... [In the Middle East] the old system that had looked so stable is ripping apart, with each beam pulling another down as it falls. The sudden stress that produced the catastrophe was the American invasion of Iraq two years ago. But this Arab power structure has been rotting at the joints for a generation. The real force that's bringing it down is public anger.

The Iraq invasion was the spark; Arab anger at their own regimes is the fuel.

While Lebanon and Egypt are the current headliners, reforms have not been confined to those two countries. Saudi Arabia held successful municipal elections for the first time, and there's momentum for more popular participation. The Gulf states have continued their cautious approach to constitutional government. Libya has climbed down and reopened to the West. Sudan made a loser's peace with its non-Muslim southern insurgency after many years. The Palestinians held their freest elections to date, and a balance was struck between the executive and legislative branches in the recent haggling that is more even than anything during the Arafat era. The revolution is not complete, but it is impressive, and is gaining rather than losing momentum.