Quarter-Season Report

Following Thadeus' lead, InstantReplay will take a quick look at the state of the Red Sox and MLB one-third of the way through the season. Compare with InstantReplay's pre-season Soxapalooza.

So how did InstantReplay do at predicting standings? Obviously, forty games do not a season make, but we've got to compare something. And brag.
AL East: Wow. Not even close.
AL Central: Mmm, got KC right.
AL West: Perfect.
NL East: Got Atlanta right. This has gotta be MLB's toughest division.
NL Central: If you flip Milwaukee up to 2nd from 6th, I got this one.
NL West: I have the two "San's" inverted, but otherwise correct. As I recall, I was mocked for picking LA first and Arizona second, but so far that's right on target.

The big question in Red Sox Nation is whether or not we can write the Yankees off and/or pencil the Orioles in. I think neither. The Yankees have deep pockets, lots of latent talent on the field, and an owner who fits neatly into Belinda Board's diagnosis of many CEO's as bordering on psychopathic. The O's owner is also insane, but he won't spend a cent on his value-guaranteed team unless they stay in first place through July, which they won't. The O's will finish third, Toronto fourth, and Tampa Bay fifth. Just like last year.

And how are the Sox doing? Here's a hitting breakdown as I see it:
Likely to improve significantly: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Kevin Millar (in power), Mark Bellhorn.
Likely to decline significantly: Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Kevin Youkilis (if he gets some playing time).
Good, and staying that way: Jason Varitek.
Bad, and staying that way: Edgar Rentaria, Billy Mueller, Jay Payton. These should improve marginally, but probably will end the season with AVG's below .260.

Also, today is the last day of the Sox's toughest stretch of the season: 28 games in 29 days (though 1 was postponed). Tomorrow they embark on a 15-game road trip, but with three days off interspersed. The series ends in the Bronx on Memorial Day weekend, by which time the Yankees could easily be above .500. Immediately after that, the Olde Towne Team comes home to face the Orioles. By then, we should be gaining a better idea of who's sticking around in the rest of the league, though I won't say the AL East has "settled down" until the ample three-way action has been played out on both sides of the All-Star break.