Syria Plays It Cool

The Syrians have been characteristically reserved in their response to the Iraq crisis. After the first exchange of nastiness with the U.S. a week and a half ago, they've become quiet and gone about their business with their usual silent efficiency. It's unclear what role they're really playing. Whether they were encouraging or merely allowing Iraqis to flee over their border and adventurous fedayeen to move the other way is not widely known. Haaretz reports that Syria has assured the U.S. that it will curb support to Iraq.

Syria's tough, smart geopolitics has made it one of the most durable regimes in the region. Never as verbose as the Egyptian leadership or as violent as the Iraqis, Syria's al-Assad family has mastered the art of Middle East politics, managing conflicts over the years with Palestinians, Islamists, Israel, the West, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, without ever losing more than the Golan Heights.

Most analysts in 1991 predicted that the Israel-Syria conflict would be the first conflict to be resolved, since it is clearly the simplest. However even after Barak's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, Syria has appeared no closer to a deal than it did on day one. Part of this may be recalcitrance: the Syrians may be simply unwilling to let Israel have the 99-year lease on its radar site that it's asking for. However, given the coolheadedness of the Syrian regime, and their general avoidance of excess, I suspect Syria remains unimpressed by offers of a solution to the Golan because it doesn't really want peace. Sure, it would like the Golan back, as a matter of national security and pride. But as long as Israel occupies the Golan, Syria has special leverage with its own Palestinian population and with Palestinians throughout the region. Making peace with Israel would drop Syria down to the level of Jordan and Egypt, and make them more of a target of Palestinian agitation. Syria doesn't need the Golan Heights, and it doesn't need peace. Israel needs both, and is going to have to make some sacrifices if it wants to choose between them.