Bush to meet Sharon and Abbas

The President will meet with five Arab leaders in Sharm al-Sheikh next week, and then with the Israeli and Palestinian Prime Ministers across the bay at Aqaba, Jordan. While I think it's crucial that the Bush team is recognizing the importance of the Palestinian question, I have low expectations of this meeting.

My low expectations are not unique among observers, but I do think that it's worth pointing out the strength of the U.S. in this situation. Bush, not a diplomatic heavyweight compared to any president since Gerald Ford, was nonetheless able to force both the Palestinians and the Israelis to the table against their will. He singlehandedly sidelined Arafat - something Israel had been trying unsuccessfully to do for two years. He also forced Sharon, through apparent back-room arm twisting, to accept the Road Map in principle.

Unfortunately, the U.S.'s strength in forcing Palestinians and Israelis to the table has never translated into success at the table. Clinton, who presided over four such summits and spent his entire presidency working with the Oslo Peace Process, was well regarded by both sides and yet had minimal success. If the less popular Bush can pull off foundation of a Palestinian state, I will be shocked and awed.

Meanwhile, Abu Mazen (Abbas' nickname) has continued to use his office and his American backing to the best of his ability. He'll meet with Sharon in about two hours, preparing for the summit with Bush. More importantly, Hamas appears quite close to agreeing to a cease-fire. "Up to this moment we have no fixed condition," [Hamas spokesman] Mahmoud Zahar told Israel Radio. "These conditions will be agreed upon by all the Palestinian sides. If Abu Mazen succeeds in achieving our national goals, Hamas will discuss the issue of a cease-fire," Zahar said. This would be a massive development, should it materialize. Essentially, Hamas would be moving from the rejectionist camp, which they have long been the strongest part of, to the accommodationist camp, tacitly acknowledging Israeli's right (a might-made right, in their eyes) to exist. Incidentally, that would destroy a major premise of my senior paper, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.