11.21.2001

Siege of Kunduz: Solution OK, I probably am about 3 days later in coming up with this than the US government or Nothern Alliance, but at least I can say that they've been implementing my idea all along. As many of you know, the city of Kunduz is being held by Taliban forces, mainly ethnic Pashtuns, but with a strong foreign contingent of Pakistanis, Chechens, Arabs, and others who have come to Afghanistan to learn terror and bring militant Islam to their own countries or against the West and secular Muslim governments. The city is under a good old-fashioned siege by Northern Alliance troops. The besiegers have a reputation for slaughtering such foreigners, who are unpopular in Afghanistan and I suspect have long been a proxy target of criticism by Afghans afraid to criticize the Taliban (much as the USA is a proxy target of criticism in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other secular or Wahhabi Arab governments). Naturally, the foreign militants don't want to surrender; they aren't as eager to go to paradise as one might have suspected. The Pashtun Taliban in the city, however, are very willing to surrender, and some have been killed by the foreigners for trying to surrender. Options: The foreign militants have a few options: a) Surrender to someone who they trust to treat them as POW's under the Geneva Convention (the USA, Pakistan); b) Stay holed up in Kunduz as they have. The Pashtuns have a few options: a) Follow the foreigners' lead; b) Revolt from the foreigners, resulting in a gun battle between the groups. The Northern Alliance has a few options; a) Invade the city, resulting in a major gun battle; b) Sit tight outside and let the foreigners and Pashtuns kill each other if it comes to that; c) Sit tight outside and intervene on the side of the Pashtuns if it comes to that. The USA has a few options; a) Extract promises from the Alliance such that the foreigners surrender; b) Sit tight; c) Bomb Kunduz back to an earlier stage in the stone age than where it is now. From a USA point of view, bombing will make us enemies. So then we could do (a) and hope the foreigners make it to jail or meet their maker. But I'd opt for (b). That puts the ball in the Taliban Pashtuns' court. Then we prompt the Alliance to help the Taliban Pashtuns against the foreigners. That way we end up bringing Afghans together under the anti-Bin Laden banner. The foreigners end up dead or POW's, and Kunduz's population likes the Alliance for freeing them. We can't fight the 40,000 troops of the Taliban; we have to rehabilitate them, and this is a prime opportunity.