Israel Severs Ties With Arafat

Mark Lavie (AP) is reporting that Ariel Sharon cut all Israel's ties with Arafat and the entire PLO and PA structures, including the frequent and (relatively) productive security commanders' sessions. Sharon must like Arafat better than he likes reality, though, because he cut his ties with reality many years ago!

OK, here's the progression of events. All of this happened today (Wednesday), though at the time of posting it's already Thursday in Jerusalem. First, terrorists associated with the Fatah (mainstream) faction of the PLO and with Hamas attacked a bus and committed two suicide bombings. About 17 Israelis died in the tragedies. It's hard to use that word without seeming to cheapen it. But in fact the word is not cheapened - human life is - by the frequent and horrendous loss of life in Israel and the Occupied Territories. The whole world is punch-drunk: it was bad to begin with, but we have no way of processing all this violence. But anyway, after the bombings, Arafat announced that he had demanded that Jihad and Hamas, two Islamic groups with the destruction of Israel as their goal, close their offices. They both have pretty big social services branches, which would have been under attack by Arafat, which would have been good for Israel and the US, if Arafat did it ruthlessly enough, since those branches make Hamas and Jihad quite popular.

BUT Sharon decided just three hours later to cut off ties with the PLO. Just like that. And this time they'd have to eat a lot of crow to take it back after all they've said. And while Sharon has definitely eaten quite a bit in his day, I don't think much of it was ever crow. In making the announcement, Justice Minister Sheetrit sounded like Israel was breaking up after a long and rocky romantic relationship. "We have decided that Yasser Arafat cannot be a partner to the peace process and we can not rely on anyone but ourselves." "We simply see him as having no value as a partner." They're strong enough to make it without big boy Yasser, that's right! "I can get along fine without you! So there!" But we all know that such protests mean exactly the opposite in romance (at least on stage), and I think Israel will come back to Arafat singing "Baby Come Back" pretty soon. Those two may have their fights, but they were made for each other.

But realistically, Israel could just have ruined their chances at peace during this generation, if there were any. More pointedly, the conflict there could get a lot worse before it gets better. All those small arms that the PA was allowed to buy will become Israeli-killers the minute Arafat's control falls apart. He knows to get more he has to be good with the ones he has, so he's been pretty good so far. This could turn very, very ugly. Israel could become a state at full war. Curfews everywhere, lynch mobs, more suicide bombing that you can imagine, civilian killings on a massive scale, deportations, etc, etc. This could be ugly.