Kiss My Shas

That's the latest from Arik Sharon, who fired all the ministers from the Shas (17 seats) and National Torah Judaism (5 seats) parties from his "unity" government. He proposed an economic emergency package, which "was rejected by a vote of 47 to 44, a ringing defeat for Mr. Sharon, who responded by firing the dissenting ministers and deputy ministers." The NYTimes article is a good layman's guide to this move's effects on Israeli politics.

Ha'aretz, not surprisingly gives a detailed play-by-play of the event: "...moments before the vote, Sharon had threatened to fire the Shas ministers should they vote against the plan, as he is legally entitled to do with any minister who votes against a cabinet decision. This caused Shas to ask for a postponement of the vote while they consulted, but in the end, the threat failed to deter them. "We're not looking for a chair or a Volvo," declared a triumphant Shas leader Eli Yishai after the vote. "If they fire me because I fight for those who haven't anything to eat - that is my reward. I said that this budget would never pass the Knesset. They brought the budget to the Knesset without reaching agreements with the coalition factions. The economic situation is difficult; I advise the prime minister to begin negotiating with his allies."

Who would plead innocent of asking for a "chair or a Volvo" except someone who had been guilty of that before? Shas is famous for being the kingmaker in Israeli politics, willing to ally with either Likud or Labor, and infamous for making all kinds of petty demands. A while ago the government almost collapsed over an incident involving a generator being moved on Shabbat.

Well, I don't think I'm reading too much into this event to say that I think it could herald a seismic shift in Israeli politics. Likud two years ago would have been loathe to alienate Shas so fiercely; I opine that this move reflects Likud's being fed up with having to fund all Shas' religious and social programs, and their increased willingness to work with Labor and the center parties. My lock of the week is that Shas moves into second place during the next elections, with 23 of the Knesset's 120 seats. I put Likud first with 30-something, and Labor at perhaps 18. I really think that Labor has lost its niche; Shas is the social-justice-for-the-poor/God-is-my-copilot party, Meretz is the far-left, pro-withdrawal party, Likud is the "safety first, then ask questions" party, and Labor is sort of in between all those. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see Labor in a Likud-led, Netanyahu coalition, or any other coalition for that matter, except a religious one. I hope I'm wrong, because I'm rooting hard for Haim Ramon, whose platform is unilateral withdrawal from all but the most crucial occupied territories. That's been my stance for a while now, and I'd be over the moon if Ramon even had a chance. Which he doesn't.