Child Prodigy

The New York Times has a child prodigy writing for them. This kid, who hasn't even reached his fourth birthday, is already writing coherent, though inaccurate political commentary.

Howard Dean may not have won a primary or caucus yet, a circumstance that led to a major shake-up of his campaign on Wednesday, but his mark on the party is unmistakable. His defeats are less a victory for the Democratic establishment than a sign of the other leading candidates' ability to adjust, and harness the energy originally tapped by Dr. Dean's insurgent campaign: the anger at President Bush, the opposition to the war with Iraq, the demand for a different direction in domestic policy

What Junior doesn't know is that primary campaigns always skew away from the center, and candidates then swing back to the middle, almost kissing across the halfway line by the time November 1st rolls around. Primary voters are heavily party regulars, and are heavily influenced by the party establishment. In the general election, you can count on all the regulars, and you have to court the swing vote. The regulars understand this centrist dalliance, and are generally forgiving as long as the candidate doesn't make too many centrist promises. Only time will tell (actually, nothing will, since it won't happen) if a Democratic administration goes left or center. A practical concern is that very few Dems have executive experience in a leftist government; Carter left office 23 years ago.

This is a Democratic Party spoiling for a fight. Dr. Dean's rallying cry was, and is, "It's time to take our country back!" Senator John Kerry throws Mr. Bush a defiant challenge that becomes an empowering group chant: "Bring it on!" Senator John Edwards cites his long legal career fighting big corporate lawyers and declares, "I am so ready for this fight!"

For our three-year-old pundit, this campaign may seem like a breath of fresh liberal air. Wake up, Junior, and smell the coffee: comparing the actions of a sitting President to the hot air spouting from candidates locked in the tightest primary race in recent history is comparing apples to oranges. When the sign-wavers go home and the donators close their wallets, when the TV networks go back to J-Lo and the reporters go back to the Gaza Strip, when the chair in the oval office starts to get comfortable, all of this will be forgotten. And if they remember it, to quote C.S. Lewis, they will remember it only faintly, as one remembers a dream.

Their memory will, in fact, be as poor as Robin Toner's. Toner is undoubtedly greater than four years of age, but seems to have forgotten the cyclical rhythm of Washington, much like the pundits who thought the business cycle was gone for good in 1999... and in 1929.