11.26.2001

Somalia?

You all still remember Somalia? Where Bill Clinton cut his nation-building teeth? Where 18 or so U.S. soldiers were cut down patrolling the streets of Mogadishu? Where a white, female, American missionary I know stayed even after the soldiers and relief agencies pulled out? Well, it hasn't gotten much better. And now the Somalian clans are accused of supporting Bin Laden. A friend of mine who has family in Somalia said yesterday that she heard from her family there that its been somehow announced that the U.S. is going to start bombing. They haven't been able to send $$$$ to their family, since U.S. authorities fear it will go to al-Qaeda. And my friend's family here in the U.S. is probably under surveillance for sending $4,000 before the cash embargo was in place.
I wouldn't be shocked if we did bomb Somalia; in a paper I wrote for school a month ago I listed Somalia second only to Iraq in countries we are likely to use force in as part of the War on Terrorism. And I'll be very proud of myself if I was right!
For all of your information and general education, Somalia is a mid-size region in East Africa, bordering Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya and a short way over sea from Yemen. I call it a region and not a country because for the last decade or so it has not been a country. Clans and warlords control regions as small states, with armies and leaders. The north of the country, colonial Italian Somaliland (as opposed to the southern half, which was British) is under the rule of a fairly respectable regime. I don't know if it's democratic or what, but stopping the tribal wars and preventing a Taliban-style takeover is priority #1 at this stage in the game.

The CIA says:
A SIAD BARRE regime was ousted in January 1991; turmoil, factional fighting, and anarchy followed for nine years. In May of 1991, northern clans declared an independent Republic of Somaliland which now includes the administrative regions of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool. Although not recognized by any government, this entity has maintained a stable existence, aided by the overwhelming dominance of the ruling clan and economic infrastructure left behind by British, Russian, and American military assistance programs. The regions of Bari and Nugaal comprise a neighboring self-declared Republic of Puntland, which has also made strides towards reconstructing legitimate, representative government. Beginning in 1993, a two-year UN humanitarian effort (primarily in the south) was able to alleviate famine conditions, but when the UN withdrew in 1995, having suffered significant casualties, order still had not been restored. A Transitional National Government (TNG) was created in October 2000 in Arta, Djibouti which was attended by a broad representation of Somali clans. The TNG has a three-year mandate to create a permanent national Somali government. The TNG does not recognize Somaliland or Puntland as independent republics but so far has been unable to reunite them with the unstable regions in the south; numerous warlords and factions are still fighting for control of Mogadishu and the other southern regions.

If we do start bombing Somalia, like my friend said, we'd better do it right. I don't know the situation well enough to make a recommendation, but we could get into a lot of hot water if whatever we do worsens the famine or regimes there.