Last post continued. Well, blogger is malfunctioning. But the end of the last post did at one time express my doubt that the interim governments will actually work. There are too many links able to be broken. For this to work:
--- Current leader Rabbani has to hand over power peacefully;
--- The Taliban has to be crushed and liquidated (remember, the Alliance hung on in a corner for 5 years);
--- Karzai, the new Prime Minister, has to cooperate with the Alliance for 6 months;
--- The Loya Jirga must convene peacefully and work out a medium-term solution;
--- The 2-year interim government has to function in rebuilding Afghanistan and maintain popular support;
--- The lucrative opium poppy industry has to be curtailed without causing a farmers' rebellion;
--- A constitution has to be agreed upon;
--- Fair elections must be held in 2004;
--- The transfer of power needs to go smoothely as Afghanistan starts to become a democracy.

That's a tall order, and if any of it goes wrong then the whole thing is a failure. It's a long chain. And every chain is as strong as its weakest link.