Lunch Hour

It's been a while, but I returned today to where I left off, on the third floor of the National Museum of American History. Not too much of interest today: a disappointingly small exhibit of World War II photographs, displayed with little rhyme or reason, and a few boring collections of textiles and musical instruments. A classical violist or an applique expert would have enjoyed those a lot more than I did. However, my eagerness to go back is by no means lessened: the next exhibit in line is the museum's current headliner: the American Presidency.

The Failure of Success

Rudy Giuliani basked in the New York-ness of it all. The glitz, the glamour, the over-the-top Party partying don't look out of place in the Big Apple, and Giuliani welcomed his Party to his city with open arms. He then went on to speak boldly and firmly about Bush and Kerry and how he perceives there stance on terrorism. And he became one of the first people in a high-profile speech to bring a note of hope to the war on terror, saying, "We’ll see an end to global terrorism. I can see it. I believe it. I know it will happen."

Rudy, I'm not so sure. In fact, it frightens me that this attitude might catch on, and bring with it a hard-line, massive-retaliation approach such as we saw at the beginning of the Cold War. Taking the position that terrorism can be destroyed like Nazi Germany or nationalist Serbia is dangerous if it doesn't reflect truth, because it will lead us to irrationally rigid and overbearing actions, and ultimately to create more enemies, more terrorists.

I mentioned a few posts ago that some of my right-wing friends think Israel is an example of success against terrorism and should thus be emulated. It's probably true that Israel has broken up more terrorist attacks than the rest of the world put together. But as tragic events like today's have shown, even 95% (or whatever) effectiveness against a host of potential enemies is less effective than making peace with your enemies.

Right-wingers hold up Israel as an example of success against terror; I hold up Denmark.

RNC NYC

Since I was wondering about the schedule and highlights of this week's Republican National Convention, here's a list of the primetime speakers.

Monday
NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg
Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Arizona Senator John McCain

Tuesday
First Lady Laura Bush
Secretary of Education Rod Paige
California Governator Arnold Schwarzenegger

Wednesday
Second Lady Lynne Cheney
Vice President Dick Cheney
Democratic Georgia Senator Zell Miller

Thursday
New York Governor George Pataki
President George W. Bush

This lineup, as you've all heard, is notable in its distinct lack of conservatives. Following the lead of the Democratic convention, the GOP is going with a steady menu of goopy centrism. The score in terms of speakers stands:
- Administration members: 5
- Left-leaning Republicans: 5
- Right-leaning Democrats: 1
- Right-wing Republicans: 0

There are, of course, many other speakers, including Massachusetts' Governor Romney and Lieutenant Governor Healey (both on Wednesday), but the heavy hitters are the ones who will be listened to.

Hat tip to GOPConvention.com.

Election 04 > Presidential Race > Polls

A new Gallup poll was released today, showing virtually no change in the candidates' standing. Bush polls at 50%, Kerry at 47%. The numbers change to 48%, 46%, and 4% when Nader is included. They also found that 17% were "swing voters", who admit that they have no opinion or may change their minds before November 3rd.

Since May, the race between Bush and Kerry among likely voters has varied within a small range -- with Kerry having a six-point lead in early June, and Bush a four-point lead at the end of July. Gallup polls among likely voters.  Although Bush's lead in the current poll is within the poll's margin of error, Bush has maintained this lead in three successive polls, with a combined sample size of more than 2,000 likely voters. This consistency of support suggests that Bush enjoys a real, though small, lead among likely voters nationally. The race is tighter among registered voters. Kerry receives 48% support to Bush's 47%, while the numbers were reversed in the Aug. 9-11 poll. In the July 30-Aug. 1 poll, each candidate received 48% support. All these results suggest that little has changed since the Democratic National Convention took place in Boston during the last week in July, and that neither candidate has an advantage among all registered voters.

As close as this election is, InstantReplay is predicting a landslide. While the popular vote will undoubtedly be within a few percentage points, IR is going out on a limb to predict that a lot of states will swing one way or the other together - not opposite each other, as in 2000. These states will almost all go together, and whoever carries them will be president:

Florida, North Carolina, New Mexico, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine. This bloc represents 125 electoral votes out of 270 needed to win. Bush has about 196 "safe" electoral votes, and Kerry 217, so an even split of the swing states would favor the Democrat, but I don't think it will come down to that. Data source: LA Times VoteTracker.

Arabsalim

Dude, there's a town in Lebanon named Arabsalim. Like, dude, like, cool.

Election 04 > Senate Races > South Dakota

The highest-ranking member of a party is safe in his seat, right? South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle has occupied his current seat since 1986, and he'd risen to the height of Senate Majority Leader when the last election downsized his party and his influence by putting him in the minority. However, in 2004 not only does he have to help out Democratic candidates for the Senate across America, he has to defend his own seat as well.

A state that last voted for a Democratic president in 1964 but still has an all-Democratic congressional delegation, Republicans have long seen South Dakota as fertile soil to extend their base of numbers in the Senate. However, Republican John Thune, who gave up his seat in the House to run against Tim Johnson in 2002 and lost in a nailbiter, is back for more against the Senate Minority Leader.

Researching this race, I found that I'm not the only one interested: the Washington Post ran a long story on the race this morning, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee is also watching the news. The Washington Times reports poll data suggesting an extremely tight race.

The obvious question in this race is why Thune should be able to expect that he can do better in 2004 against the senior Senator when he lost out to the much less powerful Johnson in '02. A few factors have moved into his favor: the Democrats have lost the Senate, making Daschle a shadow of the force he was in '02 and forcing him into an often negative role. Also, with Bush expected to poll over 60% at the top of the ticket, many wavering farmer-Democrats may be pulled over to the Red Side for this other race of national significance. Lastly, as the Washington Post suggests, voters may see the race as a referendum on Tom Daschle, voting him up or down without great consideration of the challenger. All of these factors have already made South Dakota's a close race, and one that could damage the Democrats not only numerically, but also symbolicly.

Book Review: Uncle Tom's Cabin

After a couple weeks of steady lunch-hour reading, I've made it through the 630 pages of Harriet Beecher Stowe's landmark Uncle Tom's Cabin. Published in 1852, it sold like wildfire, and informed the opinions of generations of Northerners on the nature and evils of slavery. As far as historical and social relevance, Stowe's work is unrivalled in American literature.

However, as literature, Uncle Tom's Cabin can be called weak at best. About 200 pages in Stowe hits her stride, which she only stumbles from in the melodramas of the last few chapters. It's clear what type of book she wished to write: something like Tolstoy or Dickens or Hugo, thick, detailed, interwoven; a dystopic "great American novel." However, her attempts at interweaving are choppy and ineffective at best, and muddling and distracting at worst. The greatest fault is her character sketches. The great writers of the 19th-century (or any century, indeed) were masters of human personality, and could paint a more lively, detailed character than you could even meet in real life. Stowe, while not lacking in archetypes, contrasts and mortality, shows that she lacks the fundamental writers gift, discussing characters at great length without going beyond her initial 5-minute sketch. Comparing this to "Huckleberry Finn", we can safely say that the writing style of Mark Twain, which seems to flow from the mighty Mississippi in style as much as in content, is much better suited to the tenor of the times in the middle states. Even a succesfully written European-style novel would have come off as cluttered and pretentious in the simple American landscape that Stowe describes.

As easy as it is to criticize the writing itself, and as disunited and piecemeal as the story is, we should not therefore simply dismiss the book. It met its highest goal - to expose to the emotions a system too evil for words. Each story within the book (there are many) exposes not individuals but a system. For all her failure to paint vivid people, her description - by storytelling - of the machine of American slavery is commendably compelling. The book also met its goal, not only in selling better than any other book written in the 19th century, but by compelling to action many whose minds were opposed to slavery but whose hearts had yet to be touched with the urgency and depravity of the problem.

InstantReplay recommends Uncle Tom's Cabin to those with a particular interest in American history, and in understanding not only slavery but the abolitionist psyche behind the book.

This Is Peace?

I had a long and somewhat frustrating conversation about U.S.-Arab relations with a bunch of rightists from my church last night. I set them straight on some factual discrepancies, and hopefully explained a little bit of the Arab point of view, as well as the moderate American point of view. These guys applauded Israel, for the fence and targeted killings, as being amazingly successful at stopping terror. It's not the first time I've heard that argument, and it really puzzles me. Granted, Sharon's tactics have cut down on terror, but Israelis are certainly not better off than Americans in terms of safety! This notion that less-terror-than-previously is better than almost-no-terror-ever boggles my mind. I sincerely hope that America is never faced with the decisions Israel is faced with, and the way to avoid such an eventuality is to not create huge numbers of enemies.

In case any of my readers have confused notions about the state of Sharonized Israel, check out Haaretz today (or any other day). Violence is the rule, not the exception; only the largest scale attacks have really been stopped, and only for a few months now. Two rockets fell in an Israeli settlement, and (elsewhere) Israeli settlers shot and wounded an unarmed mentally retarded man who walked too near their settlement. This type of thing occurs daily, and Israelis are probably the most fearful and tense nation in the 1st world.

Mercenary, Inc.

The corporation was actually called Executive Outcomes and operated from 1994 to 1998, when South Africa illegalized mercenary activity. The proprietor, a high-born Briton named Simon Mann, is part of a small and elite class of professional soldiers who have set themselves up as entrepreneurs in a very limited industry.

Conceived (or at least pitched) as a military corporation for hire by diamond and gold mines, the corporation's activities have been questionable at best. But then, when one specializes in outsourced shock troops, one ought to expect the unexpected. Mann's enterprise came under criticism for being something rather more belligerent than security guards in Sierra Leone, Angola, and Papua New Guinea.

Simon Mann is a gamer. Just because his activities were banned from South Africa didn't make them any less needed, and now there's some question as to whether his most recent activity was a plot to overthrow the government of Equitorial Guinea, or, as he claims, to protect a diamond mine in the D.R. Congo. Quite a few - mostly Englishmen and Americans - have been arrested for involvement in the reported cabal, now including Sir Mark Thatcher, son of former English P.M. Margaret Thatcher, hereditary Baron, and resident of South Africa.

Mann, of course, is just beginning his career. French privateer Bob Denard is well-known for operating in a bevy of nations in Africa and the Middle East, including setting a Guinness World Record for most coups against the same country. Denard has deposed four Comoran rulers to date.

Swift Issues

The biggest issue in the campaign for the highest office in the land and indeed the most powerful in the world has been, of late, the differing accounts of a young man's service in a war fought thirty-some years ago. On TV last night, I watched expert after expert give their opinion on some aspect of the matter, and then declare that the candidates need to get back to the issues.

What issues? How about Bush's executive order changing overtime laws. According to the Kerry campaign, that will cut pay for 6 million American workers. Terrible! But according to right-wing economists, it will add over a million mostly low-paid overtimers to the time-and-a-half rolls, and cut only 300,000, most of whom are already earning a lot. It's a fascinating issue - but truly arcane and gets deeply into the guesswork of economics. Can the American public decide a candidate based on this, a real issue? Doubtful - and even then it would be a matter of deciding which economists you trust.

On other issues, less arcane and more comprehensible, the candidates are inscrutably obfuscative. Could you explain to me each candidate's position on health care reform? I'm guessing most seniors, even, couldn't lay out clearly how each side's proposals would impact them.

Worst of all, on the biggest issue facing the United States today, the candidates fundamentally agree. So what do we decide this on? We decide it on things like Swift Boat Veterans for Truth: how do Bush and Kerry handle controversy? Are they taking huge risks, losing their tempers (a la Dean), or playing it smart. Not that the actual content is such a concern; it's more like a sports field on which the candidates play out a political game and the fans - I mean, voters - judge.

Gimme That Old-Time Religion

Cheers to Ali Baba for pointing out a fabulous article in the Globe. By a member of the "Ideas" staff, it articulates what the "Sports" staff has been trying to say for years.

Although many of the sociologists who have studied the relation between sport and religion tend to agree that baseball may not be an actual religion, some scholars of religion have argued that the game has enough of the attributes of a religious faith that it can be viewed, at the very least, as a kind of surrogate for religion... Actually, the combination of eternal hope and resigned acceptance has more than a whiff of Calvinism: Supporting the Sox means embracing suffering as the primary fact of life and accepting the team as not among the elect, predestined to fail and therefore forever denied entrance to Heaven... As the years pass, rooting for the Red Sox increasingly embodies faith in a literal way. As 1918 recedes further into the past, there are fewer and fewer people alive who have seen the World Champion Boston Red Sox. For the vast majority of us, believing the Sox can win the World Series requires believing in something that we have never seen -- just as faith in God requires a belief in the unseen... But endlessly deferred redemption provides, paradoxically enough, its own kind of reward. It tests our faith and marks us as spiritually stronger than other fans for whom entrance into heaven is a far cheaper thing.

Being part of Red Sox Nation is like a modern incarnation of Massachusetts Puritanism. We believe in absolute good and evil. We have witch hunts when horrible failure dooms yet another Red Sox season. Grady Little? Burn him! He's a witch! We despise Florida and Arizona for winning it all so quickly; they do not, cannot, could never have a true appreciation for the meaning of that title. We, however, see its value grow year by year as we await the consummation of our hope, and we believe, no less firm than the most godly Puritan, that our hope shall not indeed disappoint us but yet the sun shall rise anew on a New Boston, redeemed from the Curse as much as the New Jerusalem is redeemed from the Fall.

Scream If You Love Art

Call me unorthodox, but I have to say I admire the 'two masked men' who nicked a pair of priceless paintings from the Munch Museum in broad daylight. There's something vaguely comforting about good old-fashioned, detective-novel-esque crime, especially when nobody gets hurt. The painting may be damaged - the thieves were a little bit clumsy - but the hoopla and mystique surrounding the swipe makes it all worthwhile. All we need now is an overwrought curator with bulging jowls and preposterous sideburns, a dame with a red hat and a long, lean cigarette holder, and a lanky, fidgety detective with a notepad and thick spectacles.

Grin

The Anti-Yankees-Suck mojo is working. The Red Sox have begun to win games, and great things can happen when you do that. We don't have to worry about the Yankees, or the Rangers or anyone, just the Toronto Blue Jays. And then the Detroit Tigers. And then the Anaheim Angels. And so on.

I'm getting used to Beth saying it best, and she does it again: "Red Sox fans, meanwhile, have begun to grin uncontrollably."

RSS Feed

InstantReplay now has an active RSS feed. All you LiveJournal users and others can now add me to your friends page by going to http://www.livejournal.com/syn/ and entering my RSS feed page, http://instantreplay.blogspot.com/atom.xml. LJ users can simply link as a friend: http://www.livejournal.com/users/instantreplaybl/.

Appreciate Quintal and Jordan for pioneering it with me!

"Fair enough, but what do I tell the people?"

Blustering, Kerry disagrees. Last night, John F. Kerry had a long, hard meeting with his staffers.

"How do we respond to Bush's troop withdrawal?" - "Well, isn't this exactly what we've been asking for?" - "Yeah, but it's the election that counts, not the issues" - "Fair enough, but what do I tell the people?" - "That Bush is wrong" - "OK, and the reasons?" - "Who said anything about reasons? Make something up!" - "OK".

Bad advice, boys. Kerry said: "Let's be clear — the president's vaguely stated plan does not strengthen our hand in the war on terror. It in no way relieves the strain on our overextended military personnel. It doesn't even begin until 2006 and it takes 10 years to achieve. And this hastily announced plan raises more doubts about our intentions and our commitments than it provides real answers."

John F., InstantReplay has some questions for you. First of all, let's be clear, is this too fast or too slow? Second, should it be done at all? If the military is overextended, what else can be done?

Let's be clear.

Breaking News: Sadr Has Run Out His Rope

The Washington Post reports that Moqtada al-Sadr and his Messiah Militia have run out of stalling tactics. After agreeing to the 47th truce in the last three months (ok, I'm making that up, but it seems that way), Sadr has been unwilling to take any positive action during the truces. He regroups, reloads, and breaks the truce. Again and again.

But now, "[Iraqi Minister of State] Dawoud said he had already toured Najaf's hospitals to ensure they were properly supplied to handle the casualties expected from a final offensive." Since U.S. troops have pledged not to enter the holy shrine, Iraqi politicians and troops have to brave the consequences and bullets, respectively, of storming the fortified mosque.

As an armchair strategist, I'd say this is time for "hearse diplomacy". Not to be confused with "gunboat diplomacy" (a show of force), "hearse diplomacy" would involve killing as many of Sadr's fighters as will not surrender, and make peace with Sadr after he's left with a fraction of his force.

Long Lines and Red Tape

The NU Shuffle is famous! Not only is Northeastern ranked in the top 10 nationally for "Long Lines and Red Tape", but we're also in the top 20 for "Professors Make Themselves Scarce" and "Students Dissatisfied With Financial Aid".

Bad News

Two big, bad news items today:

A massacre of Tutsis in Burundi has threatened the entire D.R. Congo peace process, a fragile truce that has at least slowed the bleeding in a war involving 6 countries and ending 3,000,000 lives. In the fallout, Tutsi-dominated Rwanda has threatened to renew military action in the Congo.

In a much smaller theatre of unrest, Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has OK'd the building of 1,000 new homes in the West Bank. Sharon's commitments to Israeli supremacy in the region and personal supremacy in Israel have never been questioned; his other commitments (including those he has made to the United States) are very much up in the air.

Post-Modernism in Morocco: Return to Ancient Tongues

Pluralism seems to be taking hold in a positive way in the old kingdom of Morocco. Unlike Algeria, Morocco's sizable Berber minority hasn't been oppressed (and thus hasn't revolted) violently. Now, equal integration between Arab and Berber is being approached as the government has decided on a plan to teach all Moroccan children both Arabic and the Berber language Tifanagh, which will face issues of standardization from its many dialects.

This is a big step for a North African country, and may be either blessing or hindrance. While they may better educate and engage their rural minority, they may also find diminishing Arabic fluency, and risk becoming more linguistically isolated. Arabic may not seem like an important trade language, but with the number of jobs available in the Persian Gulf and the sheer size of the Arab world, it does remain an important regional language for business and culture, though it is being inexorably replaced by the Global Language, English.

Election 2004 > Congressional Races > Georgia 12th

The Washington Post's pundits pick Max Burns' seat in Congress as one of the most tightly contested races this fall. This gerrymandered district stretches from Savannah through Augusta all the way to Athens, Georgia - any longer and it would run the entire length of the state! Burns is a Republican incumbant in a strongly Republican state - Georgians have made a habit out of turning southern Democrats out of office in favor of Republicans since the 1990's.

A first term congressmen, Burns boasts vintage GOP endorsements, from the NRA, the National Right to Life Committee, the National Defense PAC, and a variety of business groupings. He seems responsible on cultural issues: he voted to protect confidentiality of medical treatment for illegal aliens, to ban flag desecration, and to ban internet credit card gambling.

Burns district, says NPR, was created to be a Democratic seat: its voters are 60% democrats and 40% black. The challenger, John Barrow, emerged from a 4-way primary last month, and is seen as having a real shot at unseating Burns, though both are classic "white guys". His endorsers are as typically Democrat as Burns' are Republican, including a bevy of unions as well as the Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters.

The race may be a microcosm of the national mood - on November 2nd, are Americans going to give the Republicans a few more years, or have they seen enough? Will social issues (good for Burns) or economic issues (good for Barrow) carry the day in rural and small-city Georgia? The issues are fairly clear in this race between a Real Republican and a Real Democrat. Neither party can lose this race with dignity: no incumbant can save face if ousted, and the Democrats can't blame the districting or circumstances if they fail to retake the "safely Democratic" seat. This one will be fought down to the wire, and both parties will continue to pour money in.

11 - 6

By the above vote, George W. Bush wins the InstantReplay presidential election and its 7 electoral votes.

"It's the Beer You've Been Waiting For"

Eating with Adela at Yin Yankee (an Annapolis Asian fusion restaurant) last Friday, I couldn't resist ordering a "HeBrew Messiah Bold" lager from the beer list. The maker (Creator?) of the beer insist that it's the beer you've been waiting for. A dark, heavy lager with serious depth, it contrasts with the lighter Genesis Ale ("our first creation"). Their website, highlighting "the Chosen Beers", includes a worthwhile quicktime commercial. Click here to watch "Two Jews Walk Into A Bar".

Lunch Hour

Up to the Third Floor, West Wing, of the National Museum of American History. All popular culture from the 20th century today - and not all American. Besides "sideshowcases" of Judy Garland's ruby slippers and Harrison Ford's fedora and leather jacket, the main attraction was a photo exhibit on the original pop idols. "Backstage and Behind the Scenes With the Beatles" attracted a big crowd, and it was just a great place to relax, with the Fab Four's music playing overhead, and seemingly endless photos of the smiling, mop-headed group wearing that patented "I-can't-believe-I'm-famous" look. Interesting factoid: while it's obvious that the Beatles' fans have aged on average since 1964, it's less clear why men have come to outnumber women, the opposite of how it began.

Another exhibit featured "the First Lady of Song", Ella Fitzgerald. You've got to respect a women who has a sketch of herself with an affectionate note from Picasso as well as a photo with and a baseball signed by Willie Mays. That's what I call diversity.

The Battle of Najaf

The media is reporting as much as it is allowed and as much as it knows regarding the opening salvos in the Battle of Najaf. I believe that this will be one of the two defining battle of the Iraq war (the other being the opening campaign for Baghdad), and its result - political more than military - will decide whether the U.S. succeeds in its mission.

Fortunately for all involved, the D.o.D. fully understands that it can lose the war despite winning the battles, and it shows in the care and time they're taking to deal with Moqtada al-Sadr's rebel militia. The BBC reports that thousands of US, UK, and Iraqi troops have moved into the center of the city, emptying many civilians out and cordoning off the city center. Defence Minister Hazim al-Shalaan said that Iraqi guardsmen took 1,200 prisoners and lots of arms in the cemetary to the north of the sacred mosque compound where Sadr and his loyalists seem ready to make a last stand. It is unclear how many of these were actually combatants, however, and a CNN report lists only 100 Mahdi (Messiah) Army captives. A satellite image of the battlefield is below, thanks to BBC:


The huge Najaf cemetery covers the top of the image (north) with the Imam Ali shrine beneath it. US troops have agreed not to enter the shrine, in favor of Iraqis. Farmland lies to the east, and a built-up residential area to the west. Source: BBC

The NYTimes, the Washington Post, Al-Jazeera, and Arabic News all carried the story. More action was reported in the Sadr City slums of Baghdad and the eastern city of Kut, as well as protests in Basra and Baghdad.

The Battle of Najaf has begun.

Overheard

"Hello?"
...
"No, this is Shawn, not John."
...
"No, there's no John here at all."
...
"Um, no, I don't even own a ceptic tank."

Book Review: John Adams

This weekend I finished David McCullough's bestselling biography of the second president. The material is drawn almost exclusively from the extensive correspondence of John and Abigail. Though the text dutifully follows his life through from beginning to end, McCullough's skillful crafting brings it constantly back on itself, repeating the themes and painting an incredible detailed portrait of this quintessential New Englander.

I admit that I'm biased towards the book: I grew up within a mile of Adams' estate, and seen or entered all three of the houses he lived in. His apple trees used to be open to the public, so my family went apple-picking there; the street named for him (which he used to ride) was two blocks from my house growing up, and one of the houses still standing along it was constructed there when he was a young man.

Beyond the personal connections with the Adams heritage, any New Englander can identify with the values and approach to life taken by Mr. Adams. He was at the same time passionate yet immovably honest, well-traveled yet no man of the world, politically powerful yet guileless.

The power over America's future that he wielded, and the integrity with which he did so, are staggering, and should be the envy of every modern voter. In an age of image-driven politics, one who acted on conviction time and time again would have a lot to say to today's candidates.

The most profound theme of the book, though it is not repeated or worked in as much as it could be, is Adams words that "the revolution was in the hearts and minds of the people". In his view, the American Revolution, the shot heard round the world, was not an economically or politically motivated rebellion, but rather a symptom of a fundamental change in the worldview of a nation.

Lunch Hour

I haven't been to the Smithsonian in over a fortnight, but I decided to return to American History today, where I finished the 2nd Floor West Wing. The exhibit was called "Field to Factory", and documented the migration of 'Afro-American' workers and families from the rural South to the industrial North from 1915-1940. A few noteworthies:

• Very few patrons at the crowded museum viewed the exhibit; it was a ghost town when I first stepped. This is in contrast to other "black" exhibits, such as the new one on Brown v. Board of Ed.
• The exhibit was neither here nor there on depth. It boasted neither the statistics, graphs, and maps to make it a scholarly exhibit nor the continuing personal stories that can draw an outsider into the emotions of the experience. It struck me rather like a freshman's sociology paper.
• The experience of blacks was surprisingly reminiscent of that of Europeans during roughly the same period. Whether moving to large European cities or to the United States, many poor Europeans had socioeconomic backgrounds (serfs and peasants) very similar to American sharecroppers. Standing in sharp relief is the story of the 'old Yankees', non-aristocratic landowners who populated the North and Midwest, creating a society based on different values and experiences than the more stratified cultures of Europe and the American South.

Open Season in Florida

President Bush finally nominated a new head for the C.I.A., Representative Porter Goss of Florida. A former intelligence professional and now the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Goss should enjoy good relations both internally and with the legislature. Without knowing more than the news about him, he seems like a solid choice and an easy approval in the Senate should be due. Since he was already retiring (thanks to Neal again for info), his selection won't affect the House at all, Bush sticking with his strategy of leaving his party's legislators intact.

The other contenders to replace Goss in the 14th district include Florida state rep Carol Green, local politician Doug St. Cerny, and Republican scion Connie Mack IV, whose father was a Florida Senator and great-grandfather was the sharply dressed manager of the Philadelphia Athletics. Money for Mack is coming in from out of state; his father was a popular fiscal conservative, and donors are counting on a more principled, less local stance from the young Mack, who is being called a "carpetbagger" in southwest Florida. This election will be all but decided at the end of this month, and the point of interest is whether Mack can carry the election on his father's name and money, or if the mobile, elderly population of the 14th will show loyalty to the local pols of their adopted district.

Kerrification

John Kerry just lost himself a few thousand votes, at least. It was a calculated risk, to be sure, since most of those votes will be in "safe" Kerry states, but it can't help motivate his base to know that he too would have gone to war in Iraq despite the lack of WMD's. In a feel-good era of politics, I would understand. But in this vitriolic election, how can Kerry justify sidling up next to Bush on the most divisive and rancourous issue in the election. At least, at very least Kerry could have maintained his dignity by saying that he believed WMD's were a good reason, and without those it was unjustified. But no, now we can make no mistake that a vote for Kerry is a vote for pretty much the same foreign policy as we've grown accustomed to (or punchdrunk from?).

My politically and philosophically astute co-worker Neal and I agreed that our principal reason for voting for two equally and oppositely uninspiring candidates was the chance that the '05-'09 president may get to appoint a new Supreme Court Justice or two. With Kerry's stances on foreign policy, taxation, trade, education, and health care so similar to Bush's, it doesn't seem there's much else to vote on.

The World Series Ring of Power

He loves and hates the Red Sox, even as he loves and hates himself. He will never be rid of his need for the team...

The Red Sox look as much like a World Series team this year as Gollum looks like a supermodel. I can do the math, how many games they have to win and Oakland/Texas have to lose, or if by God's grace the Yankees tank, how big the deficit is. However, it's not just a wins deficit, it's some kind of intrinsic "team" deficit, like the Red Sox somehow lack what it takes to play baseball.

Depression aside, the Sox are looking good down the homestretch. The four teams they play from today through August 30th (they play just four teams for 30 days of August) are a collective twenty-five games below .500, and the only contender (Chicago) has lost eight of ten.

After that comes Wild (Card) West Week with three each against the AL West contenders, followed by seven against Seattle and Tampa Bay, both of which should be stocked with minor leaguers by then. Six games (hopefully still big games at that point) against the Yankees are sandwiched around a four-game series with the pesky Orioles, and then the Sox close out with a swing through Tampa and Baltimore (which I might watch). Boston's Wild Card chances are improved by some pretty harsh schedules for the Wild West, where Anaheim will play thirteen of its last sixteen games against AL West contenders. For Texas the same stat is fourteen out of twentyone, and for Oakland thirteen out of twenty. Poor non-contender Seattle will get dismantled, with all twenty-three of its last games against win-hungry Wild Card possibles.

As for the Yankees? Their current stretch will be the toughest they see the rest of the way. Boston and Minnesota are the only above-.500 teams the Bronx Bombers will face (and only three of those nine games on the road) after August 22. Unless they collapse, they can be expected to play slightly-better-than-even until the 22nd, and somewhere around .667 after that. Fuhgeddaboudit.

Profile of the Congressional Races

As InstantReplay continues election analysis, one of the things often lost in a Presidential election is that a lot of other political careers and the majorities in both houses are also on the ballot. While IR won't be able to profile every single race, I think it worthwhile to look at the broad picture and some of the key races, which will be discussed here throughout the fall.

Senate and house elections are serious business. OpenSecrets.org shows that, including primaries, the House races have brought in $460 million in donations and the Senate races $340 million. Together that's almost one and a half times the presidential candidates' take!

In the Senate, the Republicans have a distinct advantage going in. Despite their slight majority in that august body, the G.O.P. must ante up only 15 of its seats in the Senate, while the Democrats are risking 19. Worse still for the Dems is that 5 of their incumbants are retiring, compared to 3 Republicans. The retirees on the left side of the aisle are all from the South: Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. With Bush primed to win big in the South, it could be tough for the Democrats to hang on, let alone steal the Senate.

In the House, things can move a lot quicker, especially if one presidential nominee runs away with the election. MyDD.com, a Deaniac blog, lists 60 House races as "competitive", with just 15 listed as "toss-ups". In the Boston Globe, Jeff Jacoby rails eloquent against the dictatorship of incumbancy in House elections, where the re-election rate has remained at 98% since 1998, after a modern low of 90% in the Republican Revolution of 1994.

What we can surmise is that while the contest for presidency rests on the edge of a knife, the G.O.P. can relax in the House and Senate: margins are just as likely to grow as to shrink, and even a big Democratic win would be unlikely to overturn both Houses. Perhaps I'm not the first person to stumble upon this...perhaps the Republican Congress itself has realized that they can keep ransacking the budget with impunity; after all, it's not their jobs that are on the line.

Election 04 > Issues > The War

This is the biggest, most obvious, most unique issue in any wartime presidential election. In 1864 McClellan ran against Lincoln on an anti-war platform, and lost miserably. The troops suffering in the field voted 90% for Lincoln. In 1916 Woodrow Wilson won reelection on the platform "He Kept Us Out of War" - but within months of the election, America was at war. America was so committed to World War II in 1944 that Roosevelt won more votes than he had in 1940. In 1968 the U.S. was embroiled in its most unpopular war to date, a conflict that claimed millions of Vietnamese lives and tens of thousands of Americans. Strangely, inexplicably, neither party ran against the war. This situation is repeating itself, where a war decried as unnecessary and unjust by a large percentage of Americans is supported by both political parties. Garry Wills noted in "Nixon Agonistes" that the biggest issue in the 1968 elections was not even a point of contention. As if to confirm the parties' 1968 decisions, however, McGovern was unable to turn a promise of withdrawal into victory in 1972.

How does this apply to 2004? Because there's an elephant in the room: both candidates agree on the most divisive and immediate issue in American politics since the Vietnam War. Bush, for obvious reasons, can't politically afford to back down. Kerry may believe that he's profiting from his stance, since those who oppose the war are generally ready to vote for him simply because his name isn't "George", and he may be able to gain votes of those who are pro-war but dislike Bush for other reasons. However, a more strategic reason is that security has been the Achilles heel of the Democratic Party since 1950, despite the fact that Democratic presidents led us into World War I, World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. Being "soft on terrorists" is not a description that Dems want to stick, considering that "soft on communism" proved to be an effective epithet right through the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Political calculus aside, who is going to do a better job with the war? Kerry says he'll get more help from other nations. That's doubtful - Kofi Annan can't even convince Old Europe to protect UN installments in Iraq, so Kerry won't do any better. Bush also holds the Ace of Spades - Colin Powell - who is more effective (in spite of Bush) than the last half dozen Secretaries of State put together.

For those of us who want out of Iraq, will Kerry get us there any sooner? I think yes, though it might be pretty marginal. Both candidates would have to get us out by the mid-term elections or risk losing big in both houses. The risk of a Bush presidency is that he keeps expanding the war on terror, like trying to put out a fire by pouring oil on it. The risk with Kerry is that he'll oscillate between toughness and withdrawal, like Clinton. So do want to hand the wheel to a driver who's chugging down the wrong side of the road, or one swerving all over it?

Election Central

InstantReplay hereby kicks off its deep, intelligent and persuasive election coverage of the 2004 Presidential and Congressional elections. We will make every attempt to be intelligent and fair to both sides, and to place each election in its wider social, political, and moral contexts. To begin the coverage, IR has added an ongoing poll of readers and a set of links for each side. If you have more links that belong in that list, please submit them.

I've also added Le Monde Diplomatique and Christian Science Monitor to the "News" links, adding another foreign news source, as well as deepening real intellectual news analysis.

They Don't Have a Category For "Model Arab League Snob"

I always knew I was an elitist, I just didn't know what kind (and I honestly don't know if this is right...I found myself complaining today about how limited modern vocabularies are).


From Timbuktu to Tijuana, you know all about world culture and politics. You've seen it all, and what you haven't seen, you watched on one of the "smart people channels." Your friends tell you that you should run for governor.
What people love: You've always got a great story to tell.
What people hate: You make them feel like ignorant plebians. Sometimes you slip and CALL them plebians.

What Kind of Elitist Are You?
brought to you by Quizilla

Art?

I have reached the height of my artistic career. That is, if you can call this art:



The model is my coworker Brian the Intern.

Site Cartologist

I'm very, very proud of myself! I may be the first webmaster in the history of webmastery to have made a sitemap that really is a map. My main complaint with it is the lousy colors allowed by the editing program I had to use. Check it out:



Note that the real one is clickable, with html 'hotspots' on it for each page.

Goodbye to Nomah

InstantReplay disapproves of the Red Sox trade on Saturday. Nomar Garciaparra and well-regarded prospect Matt Murton hit the road in exchange for second-rate starters Orlando Cabrera and Doug Minkadoodle. Obviously, Nomar was going away long term; no doubt about that. The Red Sox could have chosen to let him walk at season's end, with only a draft pick in exchange. Honestly, I think that would have been better - as long as Nomar was hitting in the .300's and keeping his opinions of the management to himself, the Sox were fine. Alternately, the Sox could have worked a deal to bring in one good player (Matt Clement?) instead of two mid-level ones. The replacement value of Cabrera and Minkqcwghfufi is really not much better than the people who they will take playing time away from: Reese, Bellhorn, Youkilis, Millar. Depth is nice, but you can only put nine men on that lineup card every day.

The last option - and one I still would have been OK with would have been for the Sox to trade Nomar for a half dozen prospects. That would not have done as much as this deal for this season, but it would have shored up a depleted farm system and given us options for future trades. Instead of any of those options, we find ourselves overloaded with light-hitting infielders, plus a new pinch runner (Dave Roberts) who we got by kissing goodbye to Triple-A outfield prospect Henri Stanley.

I'm not saying the Red Sox should give up on this year - it's certainly not out of reach. But they should at least give some thought to the future; we can't keep mortgaging the franchise every year in a mad rush for our elusive world championship, especially when it's not a particularly promising year.

Loooooooong Weekend!

I thoroughly enjoyed my 4-day weekend, ending when I pulled my new-to-me car (formerly my parents') into my driveway at 1:30am today. Besides nabbing a car, computer, easy chair, a couple tables and some other articles, I got to spend time with family and friends back in Boston. Besides that, I got to see one of my good friends - IR reader "Rural America" - be miraculously healed of a serious internal bleeding she's suffered from since high school. That's not something I get to witness every day, but it's an awesome thing to see the power of God at work. I'd write more about this weekend - like how my team creamed Dubya's in "Capture the Flag" - but most IR readers were there, and those who weren't wouldn't know the people involved anyway. Suffice it to say that anyone who has experienced a welcome homecoming can relate to my exceedingly pleasant (and long) weekend.