4.30.2003

200 Years of Corn and Twisters

Today marks the two-hundredth anniversary of the Louisiana Purchase. Just think where we'd be without Nebraska and Idaho. I'm not sure either, but I think they definitely named the Louisiana Purchase after the most fun part of that third of the nation, if not the most important part.

Obviously, the Purchase really was important to our national development. The addition of states to the Union during the first half of the 19th century was truly prodigious, and our vast hinterland created a vacuum that drew Americans westward, and created an eddy of myth, steak, and cowhide that flowed back East. The Purchase opened up the way for American dominance of the North American continent, since it removed one of the two great powers of the world at that time from what is now our soil. We would eventually eclipse the other - Britain - by virtue of our massive immigration rates and superior climate for most economic activity. Only recently has Canada surpassed the U.S. as an immigrant nation; perhaps not in absolute terms but definitely in percentage terms.

One of the great overlooked strengths of the U.S. is our domestic food production. This was well known and part of the American myth through the Second World War, when we were really the breadbasket of democracy. Now, however, farmers get short mythological shrift, and really don't have the same status in the heady language of American politicians that they used to. The fact remains, however, that our self-sufficiency in food is crucial to many American policies. Other strong economies, especially Japan, are very dependent on foreign food imports, and it absolutely affects their policies (and balances of trade).

4.29.2003

Abu

The Palestinian legislature will likely approve Arafat's "choice" of Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) as Prime Minister today. Really it was Colin Powell (or somebody)'s choice; Arafat had to be cajoled and coerced to accept the loss of authority of appointing a prime minister from another Fatah faction.

Abu Mazen is definitely an accomodationist. That is to say, not pro-Israeli by any stretch of the imagination, but pro-peace, and willing to cooperate with the powers that be to realize Palestinian goals. WIth Arafat becoming testy in his old age (weekly bombings have that effect), the U.S. and Israel needed a new negotiating partner before they could try and implement the "road map." I fervently hope that it works, that Bush et al will it to work, that God intervenes and makes it work. Let there be peace on earth, and let it begin with Abu Mazen. Or something like that.

Airtime

Don't fly to Rwanda for the weekend. I just got our itinerary for this summer, and our flight there goes from Montreal to Frankfurt to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and then Kigali, Rwanda. Total airtime: 16 hours 40 minutes. Total time: 28 hours 45 minutes.

The way home is worse - we make an extra stop in Toronto. Total airtime: 21 hours 01 minute. Total time: 42 hours 31 minutes. Insane? Yes. Leading a group with a dozen teenagers? Suicidal.

4.25.2003

Sovereignty

Have you ever wondered who invented countries? I mean, why not a global entity? Or city-states? Or empires? Why is the world order entirely dominated by states (which is the precise term for what we generally refer to as countries).

And how did we come upon the notion that states are equal? I mean, what do Liechtenstein and India have in common? Or Russia and Kyrgyzstan? Yet international affairs professionals generally work off a basis of states as equals, much as people are equals - at least in dignity and personhood. God endowed people with personhood, soul, and dignity. Who endowed states?

I'm not going to try and answer those questions. They serve merely to broaden the "box" through which we see the world.

Briefly, states began in 1648. Before that many entities existed in different forms all over the world. Sovereignty was explained a number of ways, but when push came to shove, it all depended on who had more guns or swords or pointy sticks. After the brutal Thirty Years war decimated Central Europe, the major powers sat down to work out a comprehensive peace. The war had been religious, and the Conference of Westphalia really began the state system by saying that any ruler had sovereignty in his or her territory to determine the official religion. This necessitated defining either territory ruled or people ruled. In Africa, for example, control has traditionally has been over people rather than territory (hence the tradition of slavery, and the lack of strong property rights traditions). For Europeans, however, territory was the natural dividing line, since there were no clear ethnic lines on the continent.

So Europe was delineated, and states at peace with one another were obliged to respect others' right to rule as they pleased within their respective territory. This system included large kingdoms like France, England and Sweden, and it also included tiny princedoms in Germany and elsewhere. It placed these tiny states above the admittedly toothless Holy Roman Empire, which essentially ceased to exist in all but name (and it wasn't much more than a name before that). The system worked fairly well, and it was exported with Europeans, who had just begun conquering the world. The Pilgrims had founded Plymouth Colony twenty-eight years before the Westphalia Conference, Massachusetts Bay Colony was founded eighteen years before, and fourteen years later the Town of Milton was chartered and separated from Dorchester.

The United States were originally a federation, but with the erosion of states rights, particularly in the Civil War, we become a much more unitary state, though we retain some federal elements (and we've essentially redefined federal to mean "like the U.S."). The War of 1812 established us on par with European states - we fought because our sovereignty was being denied and abrogated by Britain. The newly independent Latin American states followed our model, and though they failed to form large continental federations (except Brazil), they did bring the system of state sovereignty to the rest of the Americas. States did not exist in their modern form in Africa, Asia, and Oceania until the 20th century.

During the 1800's statehood evolved, and mass militaries changed the necessities for state defense. A "balance of power" system developed between the major powers. Small powers lost a measure of sovereignty by developing unequal protection relationships with major powers. The erosion of small state sovereignty increased during the Cold War. States like Korea, Israel, Bulgaria, Cuba and many more became dependent on the backing of major powersm - and their nature and actions were increasingly defined by their major power relationships. Furthermore, the number of major powers eroded as power concentrated itself among a handful of nuclear powers.

George H.W. Bush heralded a New World Order with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1992. Now, there are not just two superpowers above the major powers, there is a single hyperpower. The United States spends 4% of its GDP on defense - equal to the total of all other countries in the world combined! The Arab world's strongest military power was vanquished in two one-month wars executed by the U.S. and her allies, those wars bracketing a transition period which seems to be rapidly winding to a close with the world coming to grips with the new distribution of power, America having shown her massive strength and her erstwhile unknown willingness to use it.

In a world with a single hyperpower unconstrained by allies, acting with an apparent lack of regard for consensus, what is sovereignty? It must now be defined as ruling a country within broad parameters defined by the U.S. Only Russia, China and a few others could actually deter us from invading if we wanted. Anyone else can expect to be forced into line if they stray too far. Now, the U.S. does not have all the power, even if it could win a war (nuclear or non-nuclear) against the rest of the world put together. Our limits are budgetary and political, as well as logistical. We also have no desire to precipitate conflict, since we're quite enjoying the current equilibrium. That's why we're not overthrowing Robert Mugabe or Muammar Qaddafi or Kim Jong Il. We could, at a cost, but as long as they're not a direct threat or acting too egregiously, we won't.

However, the fact that we could conquer all three of them at the same time by August severely limits the sovereignty of all other nations. Sovereignty isn't what it used to be - except for the United States, where sovereignty is much, much more. Now the President of the U.S. is the most powerful man in the world, and people in the Czech banking system, the Rwandan government or the Ecuadorian oil industry all have an interest in who is in that position. This new, unique situation will yield a very different pattern of global state and non-state behavior than the bipolar system or the multipolar myth of the 1990's. The United Nations is not a threat to become a world government; the United States is too close for comfort.

4.24.2003

Beanpot

Took my brother to the baseball Beanpot at Fenway this evening. My sister tagged along; both of them are on April vacation.

The game was delayed a day for rain, so this was the second game - Northeastern University v. Boston College. It was painful to watch. We left in the fifth inning, with BC up 13-4.

Omar Pena, our shortstop and brother to the Detroit Tigers' Carlos Pena, is awful. His defense was just abominable. He had two or three real errors plus more poor plays. Our catcher was less than outstanding too. He caught decently, but couldn't throw anyone out to save his life. The rest of the time wasn't much better. One bright spot was a guy named Herlot, center field, who accounted for all four of our runs with a two-run homer and a triple.

Sad.

4.23.2003

FLI Lowered

The Washington Post reports today that the France Loathing Index has been lowered. And I quote...

With hostilities in Iraq winding down, the U.S. State Department has officially lowered the France Loathing Index (FLI) to Disdain from Abhorrence. The FLI serves as a convenient reminder to U.S. citizens on the current state of Franco-American relations.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said the lower FLI level means, for example, that it's okay to order French toast in a restaurant, but still advisable to point to the item on the menu rather than request it aloud.

"The lower FLI is based on a dropoff of so-called 'chatter' about France," said Mr. Powell. "If this continues, Americans can look forward to another reduction to the 2001 level of Shun. Of course, every American gets nostalgic for the times when we didn't give France a thought. It was just one of dozens of countries where they don't talk right, and they eat disgusting things."

Clearly this represents an improvement in Franco-American relations. This is clearly tied to France's call for lifting the sanctions against Iraq. Russia, who doesn't want to see Iraq's oil flowing any time soon, wants to keep sanctions on until we've searched every home, automobile, pile of rocks, and body cavity in the Middle East. Powell's half-joking remarks are still undiplomatic, even in the context, and frankly they surprise me. Thanks to DJN for pointing out this article in his last comment.

See also: A video clip of Powell on the subject of France, thanks to the BBC.

4.21.2003

Representin'

Lebanese papers are not allowed to say much. Reporting anything but the incontrovertible facts would alienate Lebanese and others. Reporting incontrivertible facts doesn't alienate others much, but it alienates some Lebanese, generally. Combine that with the fact that Model United Nations is some mad cool shiznit, and voila, you have today's cover article of the Lebanese Daily Star, Lebanon's top English-language daily.

Dead, Pending Resurrections

The Israeli Defense Force has notified a soldier's family of his probable death. During a training exercise, a soldier probably drowned in the Jordan River.

I'm just trying to imagine getting a phone call saying, "Your son is probably dead, but stay tuned."

More certainly, an IDF photographer died and two medics were wounded in a stiff fight in Rafah, in the Gaza Strip. The Israelis were destroying a few homes and smuggling tunnels under the Egyptian border. Four Palestinian Hamas operatives and one fourteen-year-old boy were killed and thirty other Palestinians were wounded.

It's been a long time since anyone said "hope".

Non-Alcoholic Hangover

When you wake up at 12:15 to a roaring military flyover and stumble confusedly out of bed, head pounding, mouth dry, and sequence of events unclear,

(a) You clearly had too much to drink at your pre-Marathon Monday party last night,
(b) There was obviously something besides mushrooms and sausage in the omelete you keep burping up reminders of,
(c) You spent the night watching movies and then standing around in sub-30 degree weather, and cheering on the colonialists in the opening salvos of the American Revolutionary War.
(d) Your roommate (a 5th grader) slugged you with a metal bat when you failed to turn your alarm clock off earlier.

The most potent thing you consume on Patriots Day is:
(a) An omelette at Bickfords,
(b) Foul oatmeal soupy mush at Bickfords,
(c) A pilsener from Plzner,
(d) Something highly illegal,
(e) A cartridge of black powder dropped by a British Grenadier at the reenactment.

With a major presentation due on Tuesday, you are most likely to:
(a) Watch Beauty and the Beast at 1:00am,
(b) Get beauty sleep,
(c) Prepare the presantation,
(d) Dance the night away with a lovely young lady,
(e) Spend the entire weekend having fun and then cut class on Monday to get it done, but end up doing it Tuesday between classes.

Submit your answers as comments!

Efficiency Experts

The Chinese are taking SARS seriously. And when they decide something is serious, they mean serious! The mayor of Beijing, Meng Xuenong, and Minister of Health Zhang Wenkang are both in the process of being sacked and replaced.

The Chinese Communist Party has mastered dictatorial bureaucracy as no one else ever could. In this situation, they realize their mismanagement has allowed SARS to spread, and they admitted higher death and infection counts (prev: 37; now: 346) than they have been telling the world until now. Of course, we don't know if they new numbers are correct.

Even bigger than the firing of Meng and Zhang is the cancelation of the annual May Day vacation week. In an effort to limit the spread of the virus, especially from urban to rural parts of China, the authoritarian authorities just decided to keep everyone at school for the week.

Some pro-democracy Chinese are touting this as the beginning of democracy. They know much more about the situation than I do, but I have one serious advantage: this is my blog. And Instant Replay doesn't see this as a harbinger of coming democracy. Rather, this shows the resilience and Darwinistic strength of the CCP regime. They will not be made irrelevant or rendered ineffective by events. Crises such as SARS that test governments will allow the CCP to proove itself ever more efficient and flexible. Instead of a hard-line, communist authoritarian regime, we will increasingly see a capitalist autocracy that can consistently outmaneuver democratic governments (because the CCP has no need for the delays of a systems of checks and balances) and challenge us in any arena it wishes.

4.20.2003

Jewish Agency

There's a Zionist conspiracy. Israel was the true driving force behind the conquest of Iraq. Their ulterior motive has now been revealed: they want to bring Baghdad's remaining Jews to Israel! As many of you know, Baghdad was one of the biggest Jewish communities in the world from the time of Esther. The greatest Talmudic scholars wrote in Baghdad, and Jew and Arab coexisted for thousands of years. Most of the Iraqi Jews moved to Israel in the 40's and 50's, but a number remain. And the United States went to war for them!

It seems that they even knew the looting was going to begin; in fact, they most likely started it! Ha'aretz reports that the synagogue was closed days before to prevent looting. Those moneygrubbing Jews...

However, it appears that power struggles within the Zionist conspiracy are threatening its success. "Another problem that the organizers in Israel are facing is the lack of willingness on the part of the Iraqi Jews to leave the country for Israel. This appears to be the message that the Jewish Agency, the Mossad and third parties are receiving from the community." In other words, the Baghdad Bunch thinks they're tough enough to beat out the Sunnis, the Shiites, the Americans and the Kurds. Israel wants them, but they want Israel to expand out to Baghdad, presumably. Hence the "Syria is next" strategy.

Oh, did I mention there are an estimated, ahem, 34 Jews in Baghdad?

4.18.2003

Mandatum Novum

Ever wondered where the maundy in Maundy Thursday came from? I certainly have! Well, I'm a day late, but the Mute Troubadour shed light on this yesterday, and I thought it worth repeating.

"Maundy" is derived from St. Ambrose's Latin translation of John 13:34, "mandatum novum": "a new commandment." Jesus said to his disciples the night of his arrest, "I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are truly my followers, if you have love for one another."

Isn't that a great way to name a day? What better passage of scripture to name a day after!

Playing it Safe

Syria has been effectively shocked and awed by American sword-rattling. It was still a bad move for the U.S. - a lot of Arabs are going to remember our threats long after Bashar al-Assad forgets them.

Ha'aretz reportz that Syria, surrounded by U.S. allies and unlikely to find support from even Iran, has begun cooperating with the U.S. This is good news. The last thing the Middle East needed was conflict of any sort between the U.S. and Syria, or perhaps the American-backed Iraqi nouveau regime and Syria. If the U.S. can make Iran, Turkey and Syria cooperate with its ideas for the new Iraq, it will have much more success, since all three states are in a position to assist opposition groups.

Iranian President Mohammed Khatami said in public that "Iran won't defend Syria if it comes under attack by the United States,"and that "if the U.S. changes its behavior toward Iran, it is possible to consider a change in Iran's policy toward the U.S."...

The Syrian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman clarified that "Syria's relations with Iraq have never been good," and that "Syria will be happy to assist in the rehabilitation of Iraq." The truth is important, but Syria's need to suddenly declare the opposite of the truth is no less important. According to Lebanese sources, Syria has already ordered stepping up monitoring of its border with Iraq, and it seems that although it won't agree to extradite Iraqis who found sanctuary in its territory, it will enable U.S. investigators to interrogate them.

The U.S. administration is prepared to give Assad a chance to mend his ways, in order to prevent an inevitable crash. Such a correction is rarely carried out in public, but rather in a way of small and confidential agreements and mutual gestures.

Plug

Y'all can listen to IR patron "D" (a.k.a. Dubya) on WTBU radio on Fridays 2:00-4:00pm. It's available streaming at http://www.wtburadio.com/flow/index.php. Old shows are at http://wtbu.bu.edu/cgi-bin/ar.cgi?search=News .

I'm about to listen for the second time. I wasn't unduly impressed the first time around, especially with the token woman (Dubya is the token conservative), who my Mom referred to as "squeeky wheel."

Paradigm Enfilade

Howard Kurtz reports on WashingtonPost.com that military expressions have succesfully consolidated their hegemony in American language.

The defendants in the suits "are some of the leadership targets in the war against spam," the piece quoted AOL spokesman Nicholas Graham as saying. "They operate the command and control facilities in the ongoing fight to get spam into the inboxes of our members."

You've got war!

The airline industry, severely wounded by the war, is pressing the administration for reconstruction aid, warning that otherwise its employees may engage in widespread looting.

The Baltimore Orioles are in shock and awe after being pummeled by the Yankees' heavy artillery in a relentless barrage.

Instant Replay will continue to bring you live reports in the war on ignorance from our position embedded in the world wide web.

4.17.2003

Looters

New information suggests that some of the iconoclastic looters who tore into Iraq's prestigious museums in the past week had keys, plans, and international backing. Doubtless.

However, that's clearly not the case with those who stole AC units from the Ministry of Agriculture or wooden doors from police stations. So who are these people? Largely, they are Baghdadis. Some impoverished (people taking doors, for instance), but plenty of others are just as likely to be middle to upper class Iraqis. In fact, who knew better where to find TV's and AC's than those who worked in the offices they looted? With no guarantee of a job, the least they could to insulate themselves was to take their, ahem, office supplies with them.

So I don't really blame the looters. They did what any uncontrolled mob of people lacking a social contract or police force would do. Humanity is fallen, and uninhibited people tend to display the worst of humanity. No society is perfect, but most if not all are an improvement on the "state of nature."

That said, I don't blame the U.S. either. The Iraqi people are shortly going to possess one of nature's most valuable endowments, and they need to steward it responsibly if they are to build a stable, successful nation. The U.S. should not have to treat Iraqis like children, holding them back to protect what is rightfully theirs. For that is indeed how a child must be treated: a loving parent restrains and disciplines a child, and eventually teaches him to manage on his own as an adult. The United States has no children, and Iraq has existed as a coherent nation for long enough to have an excellent understanding of the need for social contracts. They must rediscover their own grassroots self-governance, which is not identical to - but is equal to - the type found in America.

Let the withdrawal begin.

At the Watergate

Jeffrey's at the Watergate touts itself as an exclusive restaurant for the higher circles of Washingtonian society. After a Little Rock dining establishment failed to make a splash by locating a branch in the Watergate in 1992, Jeffrey's Restaurant & Bar of Austin bought up the oft-altered restaurant at the Watergate when the Bush's moved to Washington. If they are successful, expect the next President's local cuisine to be represented. Jeffrey's signs are all over the Watergate Hotel, where I stayed recently. They read:

Jeffrey's at the Watergate
Contemporary Texas Cuisine

If you were a Democrat, which three letters on that sign would you remove to radically change the message? (This is the Watergate, so discretely removing things for political purposes is something of a tradition). Leave comments...

I Hadn't Thought of That...

Which is strange since I wrote a twenty-page paper upbraiding it. But the sanctions regime is still in place against Iraq, and can only be lifted by the Security Council. Conceivably, the French could veto a resolution lifting the sanctions to spite the U.S. But that won't happen: first of all, the U.S. would just retaliate by completely cutting Europe out of the deal-making in the reconstruction process. Second of all, the trigger-happy posse in the White House might just leave the UN.

Speaking of France, Foreign Minister Villepin gave a very pro-Syria talk in Beirut last week. He's right: the U.S. would be both egregiously out of line and politically suicidal to attack Syria. But still, Villepin has a lot to learn about diplomacy in a world with a single superpower. A superpower not famous for its wine and frog legs.

4.16.2003

Turkey

My mother called me to come quickly to the front door. A turkey had just walked by. Now, we live in a three-story townhouse condominium within a mile of Fenway Park and definitely not in any turkey's normal habitat. But this turkey, let's call him Francisco, decided to visit Coolidge Corner today.

By the time I got down to the door, my mom was having trouble locating the turkey. Her and another woman were peering into the brush in front of our building. No sign of Francisco. When we rounded the corner, however, Mom cried out, "There he is! Coming down those stairs." Sure enough, Francisco had stepped down off someone's stoop and was walking briskly down Brown St. Mom suggested I herd Francisco through the gate of our shared yard, where we could shut him up and call an animal rescue group. This alone would have been complicated (and he probably could have flown out), but it was near impossible because there are half a dozen painters working on our neighbors' trim atop an equal number of ladders, gabbing and listening to Spanish radio.

I can only imagine what the painter in the new Red Sox cap thought when a turkey came trotting down the sidewalk followed by me, padding along in my bare feet.

"Thanksgiving Day?", asked the painter jokingly.

Girls Suck Because They Aren't The Missing Piece

As those of you who follow my links religiously know, girls suck. Years worth of posts at Girls-Suck have proven this beyond a reasonable doubt, and the most recent one resonates and reinforces what was the cornerstone of my teenage years: singleness.

You've never had a girlfriend, and your life doesn't feel so great, so you think that's the missing piece that'll make everything fall in place. You figure, if only you could share your loneliness with someone else, the world would become a much sunnier place because you finally have someone who cares if you're happy.

My god, let me tell you how wrong you are.

A girlfriend is not the line piece in Tetris that clears everything out for you, and I know you get that metaphor because you're a goddamn nerd just like me. A relationship is a responsibility that most of us are not ready for, but you're going to get into one anyway, so let me tell you what it's like...

To see the rest of the post (by "p5"), check out Girls-Suck.

4.15.2003

No Recounts Here

The Bush administration and Congress have no intention of having a recount (or even a count, for that matter) of the casualties in Iraq. This comes as no surprise, since counting bodies of the collaterally damaged can't help the administration. It's a little surprising that Democrats aren't making any noise about this, but then Democrats have gotten awfully good at being the Silent Minority pver the past month. Honestly, the last time I remember the Congressional Democrats doing anything, it was jumping feverishly onto the Trent Lott-flogging bandwagon. Before that? Post-election loss platitudes, perhaps?

Now I'm trying to find something to post about the Democratic candidates for president. Washington Post has nothing new on them since Saturday. NYTimes has nothing on them since April 3rd, nor does Boston.com. I almost feel bad for the Dems - they'd have to run naked down Broadway to make page two! Either that or commit political suicide by coming out and lambasting the war...

The war has done something that I think is quite positive: delaying the election. I personally think that a two-year election process is too long, and that parties should impose limits on themselves, not beginning campaigning until a month before the Iowa straw poll, for instance. Sure, Howard Dean needed lots of time to build name recognition. But Gephardt and Kerry? What are they going to do for two years? Hopefully this damaging disinterest will hurt the earlybirds enough that future election cycles will begin a little later. Of course, the real remedy is to move the primaries back, beginning perhaps in April of election year, building slowly to a crescendo in mid-May, before people leave for summer vacations.

4.14.2003

Reporting on Reporting on Reporting

The Washington Post posted a review of opinion as expressed in English-language Arab online news sources. The content is definitely worth reading, but I find the methods that the Post used equally interesting. They only read English-language sources, and only online sources. In other words, nothing that I could not have done on Instant Replay given enough time. Time, however, is something that I have very little of. My apologies to my loyal readers, but IR is going to suffer from my schedule (which is improving, as I decided to drop my invective professor last night, after he gave us a week and zero guidance for writing a 6 or 7 page paper, with extremely biased topics).

4.11.2003

Arab Pride

ArabNews has a front-page editorial today from a liberal Arab perspective on the aftermath of the war in terms of Arab unity and pride. I don't know enough about ArabNews to know if this is typical of them, but it as undoubtedly pro-American position, that acknowledges the depth of the issue. For America's sake, I hope this type of sentiment is also printed in Arabic throughout the Arab world!

Both Sides Against the Middle

The up side: Iranians hate Saddam
The down side: Iranians hate America

Ha'aretz reports that Shiite Iranian protesters, supportive of their oppressed brethren in Iraq (and perhaps bitter about the 1980's bloodletting between Iraq and Iran), stormed the Iraqi embassy in Teheran. They tore down posters of Saddam, smashed furniture and windows, and chanted militant slogans. Among those was "Death to America", just to make perfectly clear that their enemy's enemy is not indeed their friend.

One thing that has long puzzled me about Islamic purists is their apparent ease in ignoring the Koranic prohibition on images of people. All over the Middle East - including Iran - their are pictures and statues of leaders all over public places. The protesters in Teheran were carrying pictures of Ayatollah Mohammad Bakir Hakim, leader of the Iranian-based Supreme Council for the Revolution in Iraq. I've never seen personalities in the U.S. glorified by images nearly as much as in the Islamic world, and I think that's a pretty strong indictment of those who claim to be the defenders of Islam.

4.10.2003

Syria Plays It Cool

The Syrians have been characteristically reserved in their response to the Iraq crisis. After the first exchange of nastiness with the U.S. a week and a half ago, they've become quiet and gone about their business with their usual silent efficiency. It's unclear what role they're really playing. Whether they were encouraging or merely allowing Iraqis to flee over their border and adventurous fedayeen to move the other way is not widely known. Haaretz reports that Syria has assured the U.S. that it will curb support to Iraq.

Syria's tough, smart geopolitics has made it one of the most durable regimes in the region. Never as verbose as the Egyptian leadership or as violent as the Iraqis, Syria's al-Assad family has mastered the art of Middle East politics, managing conflicts over the years with Palestinians, Islamists, Israel, the West, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, without ever losing more than the Golan Heights.

Most analysts in 1991 predicted that the Israel-Syria conflict would be the first conflict to be resolved, since it is clearly the simplest. However even after Barak's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, Syria has appeared no closer to a deal than it did on day one. Part of this may be recalcitrance: the Syrians may be simply unwilling to let Israel have the 99-year lease on its radar site that it's asking for. However, given the coolheadedness of the Syrian regime, and their general avoidance of excess, I suspect Syria remains unimpressed by offers of a solution to the Golan because it doesn't really want peace. Sure, it would like the Golan back, as a matter of national security and pride. But as long as Israel occupies the Golan, Syria has special leverage with its own Palestinian population and with Palestinians throughout the region. Making peace with Israel would drop Syria down to the level of Jordan and Egypt, and make them more of a target of Palestinian agitation. Syria doesn't need the Golan Heights, and it doesn't need peace. Israel needs both, and is going to have to make some sacrifices if it wants to choose between them.

Blackmail, Ltd

If anyone needs blackmail material against members of the United Nations Association, it's all there on our website. They don't have me doing anything illegal, but the photos of me are absolutely atrocious. I hope I didn't look that bad in real life. I definitely could have used my kafeah more strategically to cover some of those forehead pockmarks...

Search and Destroy

I haven't done one of these in a while. A majority of my hits now actually come as search results. It can't hurt to mention themes like Iraq frequently, but then a lot of people end up here looking for smut. We love to disappoint!

Instant Replay is...
# 3 for "girls nuid".
# 6 for "carman this blood".
# 11 for '"little red hen" iraq'.

Loyalists

Images of cheering Iraqis have filled the airwaves and will cover every front page tomorrow morning. How happy are Iraqis? Obviously the Ba'ath Party is unhappy, and low-level Ba'athists may be scurrying to ingratiate themselves to the new occupiers (or they may be getting a quickie identity change and moving in with their Uncle Najib in the mountain). As Charlie LeDuff notes for NYTimes.com, "all but the most destitute households were tethered to the regime in some way." In three decades the Hussein regime had plenty of time to invade Iraqi life like a parasite, defining the idea of power and politics for a generation.

How about the Iraqis who are out in the streets? Certainly some are closet anti-Ba'athists. But to live 30 years as an opponent of the regime is no easy task. Few are explicit enemies, I suspect. Those who do hate Hussein are more likely those who lost a family member to the secret police. Others may be dancing in the streets out of sheer relief more than anything else. Still others are probably out there to ingratiate themselves to the new regime, to protect their village or neighborhood by welcoming Americans or Brits, and to work themselves into the top of the new social order which will emerge in Iraq over the next few years.

Undoubtedly, Iraq is glad the war is over, as are we. But let us beware of projecting our feelings onto them. We just won a war - and even those who opposed the war can be proud of our troops and the United States' ability to wage war swiftly and with minimal civilian casualties. Iraq just lost a war, badly. Even those who opposed the regime can be ashamed of their military's pathetic performance, can have fears of an American occupation, and can feel the resentment of being undersized and overwhelmed.

4.09.2003

It's Amazing

It's amazing how easy it is to do things once you get around to doing them. After a month of procrastinating, I updated the website of my campus United Nations Association for the first time in two years (I've been webmaster for a month). It took perhaps two hours. I'd put this on the side links if Blogger would let me control my own template (grrr).

Victory!

Though it has not been completely consolidated, it appears that victory in Baghdad has been won. Widespread looting, and dancing in the streets (at least in front of American TV cameras) bear witness that the populace is confident that the regime has fallen. It's almost over, and the real challenge is about to begin.

Rwanda

The good news of the day: I've been accepted to go to Rwanda this summer with a Canadian King's Kids team! This should really be the time of my life, and I'm looking forward to exposure to a totally different part of the world.

The 411
- King's Kids Manitoba
- Last 30 days on NYTimes.com
- CIA Factbook
- State Department profile
- Rwandan Embassy
- Rwanda Government Homepage
- Rwanda on the Internet (directory)

With all this information at my fingertips, I'll be well prepared to discuss Rwanda's GDP, implications for international criminal justice, and linguistic history. I doubt anything can prepare me for the situation on the ground.

Five Iron Frenzy

Anyone who knows the words to the first song on the FIF "Electric Boogaloo" CD can insert them here, and ask me if they don't know the details. I've been completely deflated, through my own muddleheadedness.

4.08.2003

Spin, M.D.

Nicholas Kristof is correct in lauding the Bush administration's efforts to spin themselves to the world. Unlike Clinton (or any Republican since Ike, really), Bush has gone to great lengths to obtain positive press abroad. Kristof is equally right in quoting a reporter who wrote "it's the policy, stupid." Until the Bush administration matches its commitment to spinning foreign journalists with a commitment to cooperating with other nations, the washing machine is empty.

Model Arab League

Though it doesn't necessarily blog well, this year's National University Model Arab League was a seminal event in my year and a high point as well. I built closer ties with the United Nations Association of Northeastern, whose out-of-date website is now my problem. I'll hopefully be heavily involved in delegate preparation for our six or seven models next year. Since I came to NU, we've begun hosting two models, begun attending another, and are exploring attending still another. It's an auspicious time to be involved.

I also met too many fun-loving, bright (and mildly geeky) people from all over the country.

There was a lot of stress and tension at the model, but very little of it affected me. I ruled my committee sternly enough that those attacks that did come my way were firmly rebuffed. I made my share of mistakes as well, two having notable consequences. These never amounted to much, though, for I had an extremely qualified vice-chair and rapporteur (their only weakness was for each other) at my right hand, and the committee continued to respect me with only a few unsavory exceptions. All in all, the model was a personal victory, and a terrific one for NU, who will attend next year holding 6 of 12 appointed positions, ceterus paribus.

Some modeling lingo for your entertainment...
Caucus. This means informal debate. And yes, a motion to extend the caucus is in order.
Cookie. A delegate who uses her (or his, I guess) good looks and bad taste to win votes. One of NU's delegates admitted using this method one morning, and said she never felt more objectified and degraded. She won an Outstanding Delegate award.
Point of Personal Privilege. This point can be used at any time if circumstances or noise is impeding your participation in committee. We use this, as well as ruling people "out of order" frequently in and out of committee.
The rest are just way too inside-jokey to even be remotely funny to all you flatfooted real-worlders.

4.07.2003

War Update

Massacres occurred in the mineral-rich (but dirt poor) Ituri province of the Democratic Republic of Congo last week. A thousand people were slaughtered in fifteen villages in one area, some by bullet and some by machete. The many participants in the bloody Central African Wars of the past decade have perfected the art of popular genocide; using weapons of minimal destruction to horrible ends. The result has been the disintegration of much of the world's most at-risk continent, the facilitated spread of AIDS, and a generation that is scarred by perpetrating and being subjected to massacres such as this.

I hope that insha'allah going to Rwanda this summer will help me better understand this heartnumbing conflict and touch a few of the lives there. God has given me a heart to pray for healing - physical healing. This is something that is taking a lot of faith for me to pray for, but if God chooses to act as a healer through the team this summer, I will be the most amazed man alive.

Thanks to NYTimes.com for their reportage on a conflict that makes the Arab-Israeli conflict look like an Arkansas family feud by comparison.

4.01.2003

Predictions

Keep these on record, since my archive isn't working. Actually, Blogger's not working in updating the template for this page either. That's why my weather link is still to D.C.

Anyway, with the new Red Sox season, Instant Replay would like to make some on-the-record predictions. Anyone who inserts a set of predictions on the same 13 stats into the comments here is eligible for the prestigious end-of-season Instant Prophet Award. The deadline for predictions is April 6th.

Total days on the DL by Pedro, Manny & Nomar: 40.
Home runs by the guy who plays the most first base for the Sox: 22.
Guy who plays the most first base for the Sox: Jeremy Giambi.
Combined Pedro-Lowe-Wakefield wins: 52.
Nomar's average: .345.
Stolen bases by the team leader: 14.
Triples by the team leader: 9.
Sox will be eliminated: In the ALCS.
Yankees will be eliminated: In the ALDS.
Sox wins at the All-Star Break: 51.
Sox wins at season's end: 95.
Sox record against Yankees: 9-10.
Sox record against National League: 9-9.