Lebanon Rolls On

The people of Lebanon used the power of peaceful demonstration to prompt the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami and his government today.

An estimated 50,000 people gathered Monday in Beirut's Martyr Square despite an order a day earlier by Lebanon's Interior Ministry for military forces to "use all necessary means" to make sure the demonstrations did not take place. CNN's Brent Sadler described Monday's protests as non-confrontational. "There is a standoff that is not in any way tense," he reported. "It is a mild-mannered ... standoff. The army and the police ... have ringed off a very large area in downtown Beirut."

InstantReplay remains cautiously optimistic for the future of Lebanon, but for now it's simply amazing to see the solidarity being displayed by a country known for anything but that.

Update: The Lebanon Daily Star is practically frothy about the developments. Of course, it's not all roses. Haaretz reports that one pro-government protester in northern Tripoli was killed in rioting.

In A World Without Walls, Why Do We Need "The Gates"?

InstantReplay is not the only one unimpressed with The Gates. Alan Bromley of the Wall Street Journal goes further: he says the display is "straight out of corporate Hell".

Spotsylvania

This weekend was too nice to stay inside, so after church I took off to visit the Civil War battlefields in Spotsylvania County: Fredericksburg, Chancellorsville, Wilderness, and Spotsylvania Court House. Aside from a big traffic jam (on Sunday at 1:30pm!) it was a great trip.

Maybe I'm the only one who is overwhelmed by the sense of the weight of history, but the feeling of pressure and smallness when standing in the middle of the Bloody Angle, where the sharp rises and dips of the land follow the course of the old Confederate earthworks, is simply overwhelming. Similarly, gunpits and trenches are still very much in evidence along the Brock Road and at the Confederate works in Fredericksburg. I had the dizzying feeling of knowing that the very ground I was standing on was once the site of pitched battle, hot with lead and blood, and that I was somehow occupying a piece of space I had no right to occupy.

Quite coincidentally, the Washington Post ran a story the same day saying that Spotsylvania County had been added to the list of Top 10 most endangered Civil War sites. The county, like most, is pursuing a policy of unrestricted growth. Fredericksburg has a beautiful, old-style center, with straight streets and colonial houses, but outside of that it looks like one never-ending strip mall. People have addresses like 14233 Jackson Trail West, parking their Ford Explorers on driveways off a National Park Service road that was built to trace the route of Stonewall Jackson's famous march around the Union right at Chancellorsville.

Isn't there an alternative to command-and-control limits on development? Can't landowners take it upon themselves to protect historic places? Can't county commissioners be a little more conservative with zoning changes? Does every piece of land have to be viewed as a potential source of government revenue? Conservationism, unlike environmentalism, is a conservative idea because it puts the land ahead of the government. Neither the county nor the federal government is truly sovereign, and neither should pursue unrestricted growth simply to line its own pockets and ensure its executives' reelection.

Dubya (HEART) Dubyette

Congratulations to InstantReplay reader Dubya on his recent engagement to someone we'll just call Dubyette. Photos below...


The faces of the happy couple have been disfigured to protect their identities. 


The pocketbook of the groom-to-be has been disfigured. 


The ring is made of plutonium, so you might not want to get too close. 

The King Is Dead

Another victory for democracy occured today, this time in Togo, West Africa. Not long ago, the international community would have been happy that the transfer of power from one autocrat to another (in this case father to son) was peaceful; now, African leaders lead the push for constitutionally mandated elections to be held shortly. Of course, he may be promptly voted back into office in sixty days, as the candidate of the ruling party. But at least the people have a choice. Even partial democracy is good: it may not give the people full control of their country, but it narrows the parameters within which politicians must operate to retain legitimacy.

The king is dead! Long live Togoan independence!

Derek %$#^@! Jeter

The owners of the FleetCenter consider the name of the New York Yankees shortstop to be an obscenity.

"That name [Jeter's] may not be as bad as A-Rod," Delaney noted, referring to Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, "but it's still considered obscene."

Not to be outdone, Nomar Garciaparra is jumping up and down and waving his hand as a volunteer for the Boston Blacklist (Dirt Dogs). Dave McCarty and John Halama may graciously accept their dubiously deserved World Series rings, but not Nomy. Naw, he's washing his hands of Boston.

Lebanon Round-Up

Everybody is positing and posturing in the wake of successful nonviolent protests (photos) in Beirut. Lebanese patriots hope that the assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri (photos) will not be in vain. Syrians and their Lebanese clients hope this will all go away.

While remaining as diplomatic as usual, the Daily Star makes it clear that the Syrians must give itself a timetable for withdrawing all troops, including secret service. The paper stops short of saying that the Syrians must actually withdraw.

Also in the Daily Star, editor Michael Young writes a rambling but instructive piece on the interaction between Syria and the rest of the Arab states over this crisis.

The Syrian regime...see[s] [its] army's presence in Lebanon as an existential necessity. "Out of Lebanon, out of power," might be Assad's motto, as he contemplates the wreckage of a policy born of contempt for his rebellious Lebanese possession. The irony, of course, is that if Assad, in order to hold on to Lebanon, further coalesces the world against Syria, his regime might conceivably be challenged from within by those who have much to lose and no desire to be buried in the collapsing edifice of Assad's rule...

This should make for an interesting Arab League summit in Algiers in the third week of March. While it's too early to determine what will be on the agenda, it would be a sign of catalepsy if the Arab states were to ignore Lebanon. Syria and the Lebanese government, in turn, will resist this if they feel the debate may harm their interests. The Arab League is a resilient bastion of state sovereignty, as becomes a confederacy of thugs. But Egypt and Saudi Arabia might be tempted to address the Lebanese issue so as not to be circumvented by the UN, the U.S. and France. And, to be effective, they will have to move beyond discussion of Taif, with its intimation of a Syrian redeployment, to include the full withdrawal demand of Resolution 1559.

The CSMonitor's commentary is a good overview of the subject, but stops short of making any predictions or recommendations.

In response to the outcry, the Syrian Foreign Ministry is making conciliatory noises, though until President al-Assad himself speaks, everything is hot air.

"Syria expresses its keen interest in cooperating with the envoy of the secretary-general of the United Nations to accomplish his mission in the best formula possible," Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed al-Mualem told reporters. "The important withdrawals that have been carried out so far and will be carried out later will be done in agreement with Lebanon against the backdrop of the Taif Accord and the mechanisms it entails."

At the same time, Lebanese officials are speaking more committally about the Syrians' intentions. This, of course, is easy to do since they bear no direct responsibility for Syria's actions or lack thereof. The Guardian reports:

Lebanese Defense Minister Abdul-Rahim Murad said the troops will be withdrawn to the eastern Bekaa Valley on the Syrian border, but he gave no timeframe. Lebanese and Syrian military officers have begun meetings to define "the dates and the way" the withdrawal will take place, Murad said, adding that the pullback was in line with the Arab-brokered Taif agreement that ended Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.

The international community is chiming in. Jordan, France, and the United States have all called for a complete withdrawal. This is, however, nothing new. InstantReplay is firmly of the opinion that internal, not external, pressure will be the only way to budge the Syrians. Continued protests, civil disobedience, and cross-cutting vocal opposition to the Syrian presence will be the only way to convince the latter that they are truly unwelcome. What's more, the Lebanese need to prove that they can self-govern. This battle for liberation may ironically fulfill the Syrian's stated goal of bringing order and unity to their neighbor.

The Lebanese blogosphere chimes in as well. "Bob" has an emotive journal of the fallout from Hariri's death on a gut level. The first of his three entries details hearing the explosion from less than a kilometer away. His gripping account finally concludes:

On that day echoes of the churches bells from the Christian side mingled with the reverberation of the muezzin’s chants from the Muslim side, above a square filled with Lebanese weeping for another slain national leader.

I am convinced that it is Bob, not Bush and Chirac, who can drive Syria out of Lebanon.

Other bloggers chime in using the various linguas francas of Lebanon. A Window In Lebanon has photos and French text; Across the Bay has lengthy political analyses in English; Kadmous is blogging about Hariri in Arabic (more than that I can't tell).

Iraqi Pol Uses Cliche

Sign #68 that Iraq is democratic: the use of tired, punny political cliches.

"I can imagine they will be exhaustive and exhausting negotiations," the Kurdish politician, interim Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, said of talks set to begin as early as Thursday between Kurdish parties and the Shiite coalition over Jafari's candidacy. "We will be drinking gallons of tea in smoke-filled rooms."

Thanks to the Post for reporting this major event.

I'm a Second Cousin Once Removed!

Congratulations to my cousin Nicole and cousin-in-law Mike (ok, so what would you call him instead?) on the birth of their baby girl. She's the first member in my near family of the next generation, and will no doubt be joined by many others in the next twenty years as me and my twenty-something cousins come of age. The infant is learning that life is not fair: she was promptly saddled with the initials H.H.H. Nobody should have to suffer that many H's in life. (Not that I won't do worse to my own kids; I'd like to have a son with the initials XSPHHMF, where the X is an unknown first name).

Econopoetry: the Perfect Storm?

The three most vexing economic threats of 2005 are mounting debt in the U.S. (see below), the decline of the dollar abroad, and the growth of the U.S. trade deficit. Could these three be solved by a "perfect storm", an economic disaster in which the problems cancel each other out? This would doubtless involve a major downward correction in U.S. standards of living, but it could be a good thing if, unlike the crashes of 1929 and 1973, it left us with high employment and productivity.

Here's the concept: downward pressure on the dollar causes a voluntary or involuntary devaluation. This mitigates debt as nothing else can; only those with variable interest rates still pay full price. Likewise, if it is severe enough, the devaluation could address much of the trade deficit. What it would not fix, of course, would be our internal problem of growing national debt; but it would at least allow us to start again from a better platform.

The same thing could be accomplished, and with a lot less turmoil, if everyone just agreed to cut back a bit and save some money. Unfortunately, fiscal discipline at any level seems to be a thing of the past.

Set Up For a Fall?

Calculated Risk asks if we aren't building a pretty precarious economic recovery. The focal point of his analysis is the level of debt, public and private, piled up during the last twenty years and especially during the last four.

Americans have piled up mortgage debt in the amount of $7.3 trillion. This is almost as much as the National Debt, and is a jaw-dropping increase of 15% of GDP since 2000, when it stood at an already-high $4.8 trillion. More than anything, our recovery appears to be based on massive borrowing. How could the economy not recover with an infusion of borrowed cash totaling about 8% of GDP every year? Either America is moving on to a brave new economic paradigm or, to put it mildly, we're screwed.

Hat tip to the Dead Parrot Society.

The Somerville Gates

Like the previous item, I learned of this internet phenomenon from an MSM source (the NYTimes). Much cooler than the overtouted Gates in New York's Central Park, a blogging type named Hargo made his own Gates, which have been viewed by over 100,000 people (photographically, that is). My favorite part of the progression is the Media Gates.

The original "Gates" do not impress InstantReplay. Anything that could be designed by a computer and executed by unskilled laborers is not art; it's aesthetics. Not that there's anything wrong with aesthetic improvements to public spaces. But I consider that a few key elements of great art are absent from The Gates:

1. Permanance. Great art lasts generations, if not ages. That's what separates it from pop culture.
2. Difficulty. Great art cannot be easily executed or imitated. Can you paint The Last Supper from scratch with your computer imaging program or your paintbrush? Can you chisel out a single gargoyle from the edifice of Notre Dame de Paris? Can you compose a symphony?
3. Value. Great art has great value (with some exceptions). This is, for instance, why we have a separate category for "literature"; it is not art in the purer sense. If they wanted, the makers could churn out gates by the million and sell them for $99.99 apiece. Only their (admirable) unwillingness to sell out to commercialism has kept a veneer of artsiness in an otherwise industrial product.

Hargo's imitation of The Gates is not flattery; it's mockery. The fact that so famous an icon can be so simply imitated deflates its faux mystique and strips it of the veil of artistic snobbery.

I have nothing against Christo and Jeanne-Claude; I merely place them in the same category as Barry Bonds rather than Claude Monet. Entertaining the public is not the same as creating great art.

Free Mojtaba and Arash!

InstantReplay joins with a world of bloggers to call for the freedom of Mojtaba and Arash, Iranian bloggers imprisoned for their outspoken views. Thanks to the Committee for standing up for worldwide speech rights.

The Afterglow

David Ortiz is glowing. Dan Shaugnessy is glowing. The Red Sox championship rings will be glowing on Fenway's Opening Day. Johnny Damon is glowing. His new wife, Michelle, is glowing. His ring is glowing.

The only rancor in Camp Champion is directed towards Yankee villain Alex "Slappy" Rodriguez. Ortiz has dropped a few pounds. Schilling is pushing to be ready for a couple April matchups against his friend Randy. Miller, Mueller, and Millar are probably glowing too.

And George Steinbrenner is planning to sell the New York Yankees to an Asian businessman who will move the team to the Phillipines and rename it the Manila Folders.

Not Seeing Is Believing

InstantReplay will believe Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's recycled promises to withdraw troops from coastal Lebanon when we don't see any Syrians there. The kleptocratic Syrians are fifteen years late in pulling back to the Beqaa Valley, where the Lebanese government exerts little influence.

The assassination of Rafik Hariri, probably by Syrian-backed assassins, has touched off a wave of protest among Christian Lebanese. The upcoming parliamentary elections will extend the anger. However, any real Syrian pullout will depend on continued anger even beyond the elections. We'll believe it when we don't see them.

Steal From the Rich

The first piece of Bush's vaunted tort reform passed the Senate today and became law. We have questions on constitutional grounds about the bill's centerpiece, which moves class action lawsuits into federal courts. However, a provision that will sharply decrease lawyer's fees on these cases is a great improvement. Lawyer's fees will be based on the amount actually paid out to wronged customers. This forces the lawyers to show more concern for the plaintiffs involved and cuts down on their own profit motive.

The Clothes Make the Woman

Most pundits, InstantReplay included, would have predicted that the net effect of moving Condoleezza Rice to the State Dept in place of Colin Powell would have made the Bush administration a more neo-conservative entity. The opposite, however, seems to be happening. Apparently the "clothes" of the office of Secretary of State have brought out a diplomatic, tactful side of Condi that was not on display in her role as National Security Advisor. She's not as internationalist as Powell, by any means, but she has what he never had: the President's ear.

Now, the State Department has a loud, clear voice in the Oval Office. As smart as Powell was, he was put on mute by the administration. Now, with Condi in charge, the State Department is in full communication with the President, and is outflanking the Department of Defense.

No one would have predicted it, but the change from Powell to Rice could actually have a moderating effect on the second Bush administration. Wonders never cease.

Too Much Gentlemanliness Is a Bad Thing

The Boston Herald revealed that the Red Sox are "leaning toward" holding the ring-presentation ceremony at a non-Yankees game, despite the fact that the first Red Sox home game is against the Yankees. How do you stop someone who is leaning from falling on their face? By pushing them back the other way. So call up executive VP Dr. Charles Steinberg at 617-267-9440 and lodge your objection. We want the Yankees to remember - forever - the choke of '04. This was not some blip on the radar screen of history; the Babe was not just taking a smoking break. The Yankees choked. They choked bigger than any team in history. So let's not let 'em forget.

Hat tip to Boston Dirt Dogs, especially for the phone number.

Arnold On the Up

InstantReplay was unimpressed with Arnold Schwarzenegger when he decided to run in California gubernatorial recall. By now, he's changed our minds with hard-driving reforms and a form of leadership that is politically intelligent without being politically correct. He's proven that he is no tool of his party, and he has the ear of Californians, who are willing to legislate from the ballot box the measures he asks for.

Of the four reforms the Governator is currently pushing, his fight for fair redistricting is closest to InstantReplay's hearts. Gerrymandering has been around for a long while (it's named for a signer of the Declaration of Independence, Bay Stater Elbridge Gerry). What California did in 2001, however, was empowered by incredibly detailed technology that allowed them to make the safest legislative districts outside of Syria. Forcing the legislature to stand in real elections, where the people pick their leaders rather than vice versa, could be the biggest victory for American democracy since the enfranchisement of blacks.

Happy Truck Day

It's Truck Day in Boston, and InstantReplay hails the imminent coming of Spring, Red Sox, and all good things with the departure of The Truck from Fenway Park. If only I could get them to stop for coffee in DC on the way through...

Resistance is Futile

This post was originally written for Watchblog as a counterpoint to a positive article by a Dan Spencer on Congressman James Sensenbrenner's Real ID Act of 2005, H.R.418, which passed the House of Representatives today.

Spencer, like many Republicans, is glad to see the Federal government stepping in to address illegal immigration, which such "news" figures as Lou Dobbs of CNN have taken up as a pet issue. However, the bill does not stop at thwarting illegal immigrants; it proceeds to regulate the entirety of the American populace in one deft move.

I doubt the authors of this bill understand its consequences. I only hope that the Senate, the president, the courts, and the states do understand it.

The fundamental problem with this bill is that it would set in motion a mechanism of control that the people of the United States would never be able to overcome. By triumphing so totally over the constitutional rights of the States, Congress would be able to expand indefinitely on the electronic ID requirement. The next step is easy to see: a national biometric ID card, which coincidentally was approved by the UK's House of Commons today. Each step toward techno-fascism has benefits, such as better crime-fighting capabilities. But each step also hedges in the freedom of the U.S. citizen.

Imagine trying to organize the Underground Railroad, the labor movement, the women's suffrage movement, or the early civil rights movement in the face of a hostile government armed with that kind of information. A simple computer command executed by some technocrat in Washington would immediately turn off the permissions on a particular ID card. When the 21st century's Frederick Douglass and Susan B. Anthony arrived at the airport, they would be told that they could not fly. The lowly ID-checker would be too ignorant or too frightened to disobey and allow the agitators through. After all, he could be tracked down and imprisoned for allowing a potential terrorist on an airplane.

Turned away at the airport security checkpoint, our 21st century Susan B. Anthony flips open her cell phone. She knows that every call is monitored by the Federal National Safety Administration, but she has no alternative. They write the codes that keep data secure - secure from anyone but themselves. She reaches her conference hosts and apologizes that she has been "unavoidably detained" and won't be able to speak to the students that evening.

It's just as well for the students: to enter the public hall in which the speech was to be held, they would have had to swipe their ID cards, just as they did entering and leaving each classroom that day. Having their names on a list of agitators could hurt them in their classes, and could hurt them getting a job. After all, every prospective employer could easily swipe an applicant's ID card and return a veritable tome of information.

Allergies and blood type would be on the first page, educational achievement on the next. Any criminal record was noted. If the applicant had been a part of any dangerous group, it was public knowledge. After all, you wouldn't want to accidentally hire a terrorist or a child molester? And given the state of the nation, no employer in his right mind would hire a former agitator for an important job. They were as bad as the low-class Guest Workers and those who had failed compulsory English-language tests when leaving high school. As one after another job applicant was told, "It's just not worth the risk."

Escaping the insanity to Canada or elsewhere was not much of an option either. Not only because Canada had the same system and shared much of its data, but because leaving the country was nearly impossible. Unless one first lined up a job and residence north of the border, crossing was out of the question for one out of favor with the government. And if you tried, you could get killed. To a generation steeped in safety and security, it's just not worth the risk.

***

Returning to January 11th, 2005, we live in a world where you can still disagree with the government, and even break its laws with a certain degree of impunity. We are faced increasingly with opportunities to cede our freedoms to the government for the sake of security. If we continue to do so, however, we will realize that the government is no longer asking our permission before trading in our freedoms. This is a slippery slope: each freedom given away further empowers the government to make decisions for us.

The only government that should be allowed to know everything about its citizens is the perfect government. In some theoretical theocracy, an all-knowing and all-loving God could govern for the benefit of all. But we live in a country whose Constitution originally sanctioned slavery, whose Congress set up the Committee on Un-American Affairs, whose courts fail to protect the unborn, whose past is rife with poor judgment and downright malice.

Unless you think our government is perfect and will remain so, you should seek to limit its power over us. If you do think our government is perfect and will remain so, you should seek professional help.

Dean It Is

The CS Monitor is confident enough in the outcome of this weekend's vote for Democratic party chairman that it is calling Howard Dean the winner. The contest for that position has been a microcosm of the party's soul-searching. By picking Dean, they are sending the message that they have no intention of seeking the center, and are happy to make their main plank the fact that they are the only major party that is not led by George W. Bush. In other words, "Vote for us, we're not Dubya."

Sounds negative? It is. But before you throw out all the negative superlatives about how defeatist or self-hating the Democrats are, rememember that the strategy works. Most recently, we saw it in the latter days of the Clinton administration. We didn't know who Bush was, but we knew he wasn't part of the Clinton team, and that was enough. Gore couldn't cash in on Clinton's popularity with centrist voters, but was held accountable for Clinton's lapses.

After eight years of Bush, a lot of centrists will be ready for a change. And the Democrats are exactly right to position themselves where they can pick up all those votes in 2008. If they played the center, Republicans might be able to keep office by running someone not from Bush's camp. By playing hardball, the Dems are forcing the GOP to circle wagons (or break into desultory factions), and pinning Republicans to the Bush agenda whether they like it or not. In 2008, we'll see if the strategy pays off.

The InstantReplay.Blogspot.Com Center

Forget getting your hand-lettered sign on the jumbotron - just get the stadium named after you! While the FleetCenter owners look for a new sponsor to name the venue after, they plan to make naming rights available on a daily basis to whomever is willing to pay. The proceeds will go to charity, but the publicity stunt should help grab the attention of those who might actually buy the naming rights, and may raise the price by raising the SomethingCenter's profile.

To bid on the Center, go to E-Bay and place a bid! Even if you don't win, at least you can say you tried.

Anyone who gets it renamed the InstantReplay.Blogspot.ComCenter for a day will win my everlasting gratitude and a full day's worth of coverage on this blog devoted to them.

Vive la Difference?

CS Monitor knew that the eye-catching headline about the (most) recent Israeli-Palestinian truce would be "Why this deal might be different". It's a nice thought, but InstantReplay is unconvinced. With Hamas, Al-Aqsa and others maintaining that they are not bound by the truce (though they will tone things down out of respect), it seems an awfully pointless gesture. Abu Mazen's Palestinian Authority has, after all, not been attacking anyone lately. And InstantReplay doubts that Sharon can really control his trigger-finger when provoked.

The result is that this truce has all the same weaknesses we are accustomed to. The extremists on both sides have veto power over any concessions. All they have to do is cause a bit of violence, and the spiral of retaliation will start again. Until one side or the other refuses to respond (following the example of Iraq's Shia), there's no reason to really hope.

Field Goal

The New England Patriots went for three last night and came up good. In the space of four years, they have gone from being a perennial non-achiever to an exclusive dynasty. I made the trip to Boston to be there for the game, and certainly enjoyed the visit. The celebrations that followed the game were radically subdued compared to the last three Boston championships.

So what's it like to live in a dynasty? Right now, in the wake the Red Sox World Series win, it's victory overload. It's like winning a million dollars when you've got a billion in the bank. On the other hand, this win is by no means minor - it makes us a dynasty. A few more Super Bowl wins would redefine the idea of a football dynasty. This win is not for our time - it's for history. For the future. For some cold year in the 2030's when the Patriots lose 14 games and the Red Sox lose 100.

This win is also for the past - it adds validity to the last two Super Bowl wins. It lends weight and longevity to the frenzied celebrations that rocked Boston's sports universe in early 2002. This win is for January, 2005, as well - capping the wins over Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, lest there be any doubt.

Reflecting on Sunday's game, we Boston fans can see the importance of another Red Sox title, even if it takes a few years to achieve. One World Series win is incredible, but if we return to our erstwhile diet of mediocrity tinged with spectacular failure, won't we begin to wonder if the Bambino was not actually dead, but just on a coffee break from his routine of curse-enforcement? At risk of sounding like Dan Shaughnessy, there's still something to play for. The Red Sox championship expires next October; they need to renew it.

Victory is not only won - it is maintained. In that spirit we can celebrate the Patriots third Super Bowl win not as a new championship but as a renewal of the old. We do not need to find new joy at scaling a new peak; instead we can tap into that sweet and lasting satisfaction that belongs to those who have never left the mountaintop.

Quiter

Donald Rumsfeld earns a lot more more respect from InstantReplay with the revelation that he offered his resignation twice to President Bush during the Abu Ghraib scandal. At the time, InstantReplay said he should have resigned, so he wasn't as far out of step with good ethics as we thought.

Plans

I finished my grad school applications this past week, applying to Economics Ph.D. programs at Rochester, Boston U, Boston College, Rutgers, and UConn. Last year I aimed higher, and missed on all six shots; we'll see where I land this time around.

I have not closed the door on other options for next year; but few other options have presented themselves. My Peace Corps application is getting held up by a slow-moving civil lawsuit stemming from a 2002 car accident (this is especially a bummer because I can think of at least two friends joining the Peace Corps this summer). My current job does not seem to have great potential for learning, growth, or promotion. Other jobs I applied to last fall have not been offered. If a new opportunity comes up or if I don't get accepted to grad school, I might end up doing something different (or staying at my job), but that's not the situation I'm hoping for.

In the nearer term, I'm visiting Boston this weekend for the Super Bowl, and I hope to see all my peeps and loyal readers while there.

Nailhead

When I moved into my current house in Virginia, one of the first things I noticed about my new bedroom was that a nailhead emerged from the woodwork of the windowsill by my bed. Mental note: need to hammer that down before I rip something on it.

It was not the last time I noticed the nailhead. In fact, I got to know the nailhead very well. It's not flat, in fact it might not be what you would consider a proper nailhead. It's the backside of a nail, to be sure, but rather than being flat and wide, it really just consists of a slight increase in the diameter of the nail for the last millimeter of its length.

The nailhead protruded just three or four millimeters from the windowsill into which the haft of the nail was vertically driven. It's not a very remarkable spot - my bed, pushed up against the window, is slightly higher than the sill in question. However, I do spend a lot of time at that window - it's one of two places in this house where T-Mobile gives me a cellular signal. So I got to know the nail. I would see it at least twice a week, every time registering the need to retrieve the hammer from the second shelf of the bookcase on the first floor and hammer the nail into place.

With the passage of time, the nail grew in stature and I shrank. I didn't doubt my ability to retrieve the hammer from the second shelf of the bookcase on the first floor - I had done so and used the hammer for various other, larger, projects many times. But I didn't really believe that I could move the nail. The force of inertia was on its side: after flaunting gravity for so long, who was I to presume power over the Nailhead?

Today, when I got home from work, I went to my room. And I thought of the Nailhead. "I've been meaning to fix that", I said. And I walked downstairs, retrieved the hammer from the second shelf of the bookcase on the first floor, and climbed back up the stairs. Being careful not to hit the window, I firmly tapped the nailhead until it sat flush with the wood, unnoticeable except as a dark spot on a white windowsill.

Did it take me thirty seconds to tap in a nailhead, or did it take me six months and twenty-one days?

Are Your Friends Normal?

For those of you in college, you can find out how closely your friends conform to the norm for 2004 freshmen. This is the 39th year of the well-regarded "American Freshman" survey by UCLA researchers. The executive summary (11 pages, PDF) is available on their website, or you can read a quick article and chart at the CSMonitor.

The oddest piece of data is the percentage of students who say there is a "very good chance" they will socialize with someone of another race in college. Just 60% of whites, and 73% of the smallest ethnic groups, say so. For all races, the percentage is less than the corresponding number for "frequently socialized with a person of another race in high school." Are all these kids going to segregated colleges? Or did they decide that they had enough 'race-mixing' in high school? Weird.

Relative to computer use, the study points out a continuing "Digital Divide". However, the scholars misrepresent their data by using that popular expression. As their chart shows, computer use for all races has been increasing swiftly since 1985. What the data really shows is a "Digital Lag", where all sectors are pushing toward 100% usage, but some are moving faster than others. Even among families with less than $30,000 household income, 66% of blacks who go to college use computers. A true "digital divide" would show that columns of society (whether racial or socio-economic) are being left out of the computer revolution. However, this data shows that even among poor families, students are getting exposure to computers though their parents are usually computer-illiterate. Of course, this is data among college-bound students, so it is not really representative. However, it certainly does not prove the existence of the divide, as the UCLA scholars suggest.

We might know whether the digital divide is real or imaginary in about 20 years, when a fully computerized generation comes of age. If there is a divide, then we should see stable numbers of non-users over time. For now, however, our best efforts can be placed in other aspects of education - computers have a life of their own and the profit motive will saturate society with them much as it did with telephones and automobiles, both of which were once considered signs of wealth.

Bloggies

Vote for the 2005 Bloggie Awards. InstantReplay recommends Watchblog and Soxaholix in their respective catagories.