7.26.2005

Repeated Blows To The Head

MosNews reports that Russia's spammer laureate is dead.
Vardan Kushnir, notorious for sending spam to each and every citizen of Russia who appeared to have an e-mail, was found dead in his Moscow apartment on Sunday, Interfax reported Monday. He died after suffering repeated blows to the head.
This is what happens when the law fails to stop destructive activities: citizens take justice into their own hands. It would, of course, have been more apropos to kill the blighter by paper-cutting him to death, or by burying him in a thousand pounds of sticky notes, one by one. Hat tip to Drudge

Will Work For Change

The decline of organized labor has been well-documented, and today's move by the Service Employees and Teamsters to quit the AFL-CIO could either save or scuttle it in the long run. In the short run, however, it will almost without a doubt hurt labor, which will now feature competition among existing unionists instead of outreach to those on the fringe. Econo-politically, the rift is telling. While I haven't done real research into this, the Post story makes clear that the dominant forces in the AFL-CIO recently have been the teachers' unions and the public servants' unions, and the grievance of those in the other camp (teamsters, service workers, carpenters, and others tied to the non-manufacturing private sector) has been that too much time and money is spent on politics, too little on affecting change at the grassroots. In short, labor (part of it, anyway) is becoming conservative. If not in goals, in methods. The leadership has realized that no amount of political sway and no quantity of handouts can save the union way of life. Just like in the early days of organized labor, the impetus for change and results has to come from the workers themselves, not edict-issuers behind mahogany desks. Hopefully, some of the union leaders have realized that manufacturing cannot be saved by demanding more concessions of companies already on the rocks. When labor first organized, it was effective because owners was taking the lion's share of profits. Now, a lion would starve on the profits most manufacturing concerns are making. This is not an easy time for anyone in the industry, but InstantReplay applauds leaders in labor and business who can come up with creative ways to keep Americans working - and we condemn those who think they can turn back the clock to 1970.

7.22.2005

Double Standard

Remember the flap that occurred when soldiers in Iraq called Secretary Rumsfeld onto the carpet for Washington's shortcomings in running their war? Huge press. Enormous press. But when soldiers at Guantanamo gave "a piece of their mind" to Senators Kennedy (D-MA) and Akaka (D-HI), the only mention is in the Washington Times. The rest of the press is silent on the issue. Hat tip to Drudge.

7.21.2005

Win, Lose, or Rain?

People are split over Justice Roberts' nomination: some say his record is too short to know him; others say that it's clear what kind of justice he will be. This latter group is split between those (like E.J. Dionne) who think he will be a strong rightist and others (including Ann Coulter) who think he's moderate and will move left. This tells me that those who think we don't know yet are correct.

His inscrutability may be precisely why Bush has placed him on the court now, and did not hold his piece de resistance in reserve for the expected Rehnquist vacancy. This way, Bush can get a look at Roberts in action, and when Rehnquist dies (or retires, though I suspect the latter will occur first) elevate Roberts to Chief Justice and put a woman or minority onto the Court as an Associate Justice. This is not what Justice O'Connor expects, though it jibes with her assertion that Bush would not want a woman or minority as Chief Justice. Better put, the sentiment is that Bush would want the best justice on the Court as Chief, not a justice who is there primarily because of his or her birth circumstances.

Of course, Rehnquist is loudly insisting that he's "not dead yet", and one of my coworkers believes he'll hang on for another five or ten years. I'm less convinced. His health is so poor, and the pressure to retire while the government is in Republican hands is so high, that I find it hard to imagine him hanging on until 2009. Whether another justice will join him in death or retirement is less predictable - none of the liberals would want to step down and hand the balance of power to a Republican majority, though none except Ginsburg and Breyer were actually appointed by Democrats.

7.20.2005

Roberts!

President Bush surprised everyone by picking John Roberts of the D.C. Circuit as his first Supreme Court nominee. Roberts fits the Bush appointee mold: he's got a long history of service to the party, but is a pragmatist, not an ideologue. Confirmation shouldn't be a problem for Roberts, though the Maxine Waters branch of the Democratic Party will probably whine about his white maleness.

Frankly, his white maleness might actually be a sign that Washington is arriving in the promised land of race irrelevance. Think about professional sports: race was once a big deal, and it took heroics by the likes of Robinson to achieve the irrelevance that athletes today take for granted. "I have a dream," he could have said, "that one day, black pitchers will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the speed of their fastball." Likewise, the goal of affirmative action and desegregation should not be to create some Lebanon-esque quota system, but to get to a point where people are valued for their minds and character (or at least for their connections and money), and race matters only as, say, state of origin does now.

7.19.2005

Voice Mail

I went to an enjoyable Nationals game tonight (unfortunately, they lost yet again). But the poor fielding and the drunk fans were no match in the unintentionally funny category for the voice mail I received when I left the game:
Hey Chops this is Rural America I just wanted to call to tell you I found your future wife and I'm really excited and Keziah approved and she's totally interested and when you come out here you've got to meet this girl and she's beautiful too. She's like-- I see no flaws. I'm totally impressed. You've got to meet her. We'll go out when you come up. Please call me back 'cause I'm very excited. Ok hope you're having a great day bye.
Apparently, I came up in casual conversation between Rural America and my sister Kez at their Bible study, and by the end of the conversation I had been married off to a comely Persian-American from Wellesley College.

7.18.2005

Lose The Battles, Win the War

Escalating violence in Iraq has called the Coalition's chances of victory in Iraq into question more and more. NYTimes reports the aftermath of a massive suicide attack (exploiting an oil tanker) in Mussayib, a poor Shia community near Baghdad. With terrorists killing more, not fewer, Iraqis, and with no apparent correlation between Coalition efforts and on-the-ground results it's hard to argue that increased effort or a few key nabs will turn the tide.

America, however, has a history of winning wars despite losing battles. The Revolutionary War made the concept famous, as Generals Washington and Greene retreated their way into history. The Civil War witnessed a virtually unbeatable Confederate Army under Robert E. Lee - yet it surrendered to the Union Army of the Potomac, whose greatest accomplishments were those times it managed to avert disaster. Conversely, the U.S. won many a battle in Vietnam, and had an astronomical kills-to-casualties ratio, but lost the war ignominiously.

Where does Iraq fit in? Can we really call suicide bombings "lost battles" in any meaningful military sense? Is this just another Vietnam, where endless waves of expendable cannon fodder will ultimately overwhelm the will to war of the U.S. and her allies?

In reality, losing battles has little to do with winning wars. However, in hearts-and-minds conflicts, at least, winning battles has equally little to do with winning wars. And the Times article, as biased and negative as it is (see the opening paragraph), contains the seeds of the Coalition victory:
The attacks also come as most of the country's major Sunni Arab communities have begun to coalesce around a commitment to get out the Sunni Arab vote in the December elections for a full government, a decision the government views as a further step toward solidifying a political process that the insurgency has been trying to undermine.
The insurgents may be killing people on a large scale, but Iraq is not Spain. After two decades of Saddam Hussein, random killings are part of the fabric of a rough national life. The goal of the insurgents, apparently, is to disrupt the democratic process enough that the Americans leave, a civil war ensues, and their various backers then have a chance to take over. However, Sunnis, as the quote above states, have realized that their future lies with the Coalition-backed government, not a rebellion. This is in no small part due to the remarkable forbearance of Shi'ites, who have refrained from vengeance despite two decades under Saddam and two years at the hands of suicide bombers. They want stability (if not democracy) and the loyalty and discipline with which they follow their leaders has made a Coalition victory possible.

Shi'ite forbearance has led to a slow growth of Sunni trust, and a possibility that the U.S. could win this war without ever fully stemming the tide of suicide bombs. Obviously, the murderous pace of the past week cannot be sustained, but with some ups and downs, its not unreasonable to imagine a scenario where Iraq's policymakers go through with a successful constitutional convention and subsequent elections, with the same gumption that they showed last time around, and the U.S. begins to withdraw shortly thereafter.

Without the U.S. presence, what will the suicide bombers be attacking? I doubt Zarqawi & Co. will still have eager recruits when it becomes starkly clear that the only business in town is killing other Arabs.

7.14.2005

Free-For-All 2008: Does McCain Have a Chance?

The resignation of Justice O'Connor has taken some wind out of the sails of 2008 preparation. It is inevitable that there be some breaks in the Perpetual Election, if only to perform what many think is the most important piece of business of a presidency. What's more, since Bush will replace O'Connor, his successor won't. That puts more weight in the long-term battles of politics on the present at the expense of the future.

Matt Drudge's breaking news today that John McCain has an uncredited cameo in the raunchy comedy Wedding Crashers is, as InstantReplay reader Law Abiding Citizen would say, "more evidence for the prosecution". In McCain's case, it's more evidence that he's not personally committed to Christian values, despite his Beltway harangues about crass R-rated flicks.

McCain is going to have a devil of a time becoming president. He has many advantages, most notably his high name-recognition and positive impression, which is why he keeps winning what-if polls like Zogby's from late June. His principled centrism makes him popular, but it also makes him easy to beat in the primaries, especially if the Christian Right unites behind a single candidate, as some leaders are trying to do. Today's news that the Michigan G.O.P. will be barring Democrats and Independents from voting in the Republican primary is another nail in the coffin of McCain's hope of winning a primary outright.

Would McCain be an effective president? Most likely. He's an independent, tough-minded leader. He's not afraid of his own opinion, and he's pleasant to look at and listen to. He's a centrist who would make partisans on both sides look petty, and his relationship with the legislative branch would be excellent. However, the only scenarios under which I can foresee McCain becoming president would be:

  • He runs as an independent against weak Rep. and Dem. nominees. With Hillary all but a lock on the left, that's unlikely.
  • Centrist Republicans like Pataki and Giuliani drop out of the race early, leaving McCain to sweep the center/left primary votes against a divided right. He would annihilate Hillary in the general election.
  • Hillary becomes so popular that Republicans panic en masse in the primaries and vote for McCain for his electability.
  • Hillary dies in office, and Vice President McCain succeeds her.
Here are July's chatter rankings. New York Republicans slip some more, Massachusetts is up on both boards. Hagel, Condi, and Biden recover from last month's losses, but Howard Dean drops lower than we've seen him. George Allen and Newt Gingrich prove incapable of keeping last month's interest alive. This month's overperformers included Romney, Bayh, and Biden, all of whom recently announced their interest in the presidency. Frist, Cheney, and Rice, as newsmakers in their own right, continually outperform their true status. Also notable is Hillary, who stayed in first place, but more than doubled her hits.
Rank Candidate ChatterRank
Change
R.1 Sen. Bill Frist 1,2000
R.2 Sen. John McCain 9920
R.3 Gov. Mitt Romney 596+3
R.4 V.P. Dick Cheney 493+3
R.5 Secy. Condoleezza Rice 482+5
R.6 Sen. Chuck Hagel 447+5
R.7 Gov. Jeb Bush 331-2
R.8 Sen. Sam Brownback 320+2*
R.9 Rudy Giuliani 290-1
R.10 Sen. George Allen 246-7
R.11 Newt Gingrich 204-7
R.12 Gov. George Pataki 178-3
....................................................................................................
D.1 Sen. Hillary Clinton 3,4400
D.2 Sen. John Kerry 1,360+1
D.3 Sen. Evan Bayh 591+4
D.4 Sen. John Edwards 5680
D.5 Sen. Joseph Biden 505+3
D.6 Gov. Mark Warner 429-1
D.7 Howard Dean 333-5
D.8 Gov. Bill Richardson 245-2

Notes: The Chatter Rankings are created by searching each candidate's name plus "2008" in the Google News database.
This month's tested-but-not-qualifying list includes Russell Feingold, Barack Obama, Mike Huckabee.

* Sam Brownback was not ranked last month but would have placed 10th.


Compare this month's results to those of June and May to get an idea of candidate trajectories.

Belgium Advances to the Finals!

In other international baseball news, InstantReplay's correspondent/mother reports from Kutno, Poland:
In nail-biting, edge-of-your-seat action over the last seven days, Belgium All-Stars have beat Austria 8 to 2, Poland 10 to 9, Germany 12 to 6, Belarus 11 to 1, and today in extra innings, Ukraine 8 to 7. We lost miserably to Netherlands on Sunday, 13 to 0.

Netherlands has yet to lose a game and we will play them tomorrow for the championship game, 8:00 Friday evening. They are big, they are strong -- I believe to win we need prayer.

Today Barnabas was in clutch situations twice, key moments that could have turned/won the game & he hit the ball both times but was thrown out. He needs a BIG hit.
This is similar to the scenario that played out last year: the Netherlands beat Belgium in the first round, but the Sprout-Eaters triumphed in the final, sending them to Michigan for the Junior League world championships. If that is repeated this year, I'll be thrilled for my brother, but also a little disappointed: he'd have to skip our planned 2-city, 4-playoff-contending-team baseball road trip at the end of this month.

World Baseball Classic Bracket Set

Major League Baseball has set the bracket for the World Baseball Classic. Pool A will play in Japan; the nationalist subplots will run rampant as Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea all play their old wartime enemies and uneasy neighbors. In Pool B, South Africa will join the NAFTA members in a group the USA and Mexico should easily headline. Pool C will be hosted by Puerto Rico, and include Panama, Cuba, and the Netherlands. In Pool D, also held in the U.S., the runaway favorites will beat up on Venezuela, Italy, and Australia. The question is not whether the Dominicans will make the finals, but whether they will score less than 15 runs in any game. A-Rod, Tejada, Manny, Pujols, Papi, Sammy, Vlad, Aramis, Pedro, anyone?

The other early favorites have to be the U.S., with all that pitching talent, and Cuba, which will play as a cohesive team and want to make the most of this opportunity to show up the free world. The only other real national team will be the Chinese, and their main goal will be to look respectable losing to Taiwan and Japan; after that, they'll just root for their Cuban comrades.

The Classic not only provides a forum for post-colonial and post-Cold War revenge, its also a chance to learn about other baseball-playing lands for American fans and journalists, such MLB staffer Barry Broom, who wrote that Cuba is a "tiny coummunist [sic] island 90 miles south of Miami Beach" or that Andruw Jones is from "Holland" (he's from Curacao, one of the Netherlands Antilles). Some American-born players want to go with their country of ancestry: A-Rod has said he's going to play for the Dominican. Nomaas.org suggests that Giambi should join the Italians.

7.12.2005

Death Is Too Good For Hackers

The rascally John Tierney writes in the New York Times that death - let alone 30 hours of community service - is not harsh enough a punishment for Sven Jaschan, the whoreson rogue who released the devastating Sasser Worm on the world's computer's. His jumping off point is a study by Professor Steven Landsburg of University of Rochester.
Professor Landsburg, an economist at the University of Rochester, has calculated the relative value to society of executing murderers and hackers. By using studies estimating the deterrent value of capital punishment, he figures that executing one murderer yields at most $100 million in social benefits.

The benefits of executing a hacker would be greater, he argues, because the social costs of hacking are estimated to be so much higher: $50 billion per year. Deterring a mere one-fifth of 1 percent of those crimes - one in 500 hackers - would save society $100 million. And Professor Landsburg believes that a lot more than one in 500 hackers would be deterred by the sight of a colleague on death row.
But Tierney, appropriately, is unenamored of capital punishment for destructive teenage nerds. Like any good disciplinarian, he wants a punishment - one worse than death - that better fits the crime.
The experts weren't sure that any punishment could fit the crime, but they had several suggestions: Make the hacker spend 16 hours a day fielding help-desk inquiries in an AOL chat room for computer novices. Force him to do this with a user name at least as uncool as KoolDude and to work on a vintage IBM PC with a 2400-baud dial-up connection.
Brutal.

Pre-Enlightenment Enlightenment

As many of my readers know, I'm always gratified to find evidences that modern Christianity was not a product of the Enlightenment. Reading Pascal and Augustine this year has gone a long way to show me that the modern liberal claim that our values originated in the Enlightment is simply revisionist. Our modern reading of the Bible is no different than that of the writers of past millenia, nor probably than that of its original readers.

The latest from Augustine is echoed in Descartes's cogito ergo sum. From City of God XI,26:
For we are and we know that we are, and we love to be and to know that we are. And in this trinity of being, knowledge, and love there is not a shadow of illusion to disturb us. For, we do not reach these inner realities with our bodily senses as we do external objects, as, for example, color by seeing, sound by hearing, [etc.]... In the case of such sensible things, the best we do is to form very close and immaterial images which help us to turn them over in our minds, to hold them in our memory, and thus to keep our love for them alive. But, without any illusion of image, fancy, or phantasm, I am certain that I am, that I know that I am, and that I love to be and to know.
There is, of course, a material difference between Augustine's "trinity of being, knowledge, and love" and Descartes's "I think therefore I am". For Descartes asserts that his being is premised on his own power of cognition, whereas Augustine and Pascal (as previously discussed) cast the focus on the creator, and are postmodernly self-aware (i.e., aware of their self-awareness) without losing their awe of the Supreme Being who is the reference point for their and indeed all other being.

7.11.2005

Dateline: Kutno

The Junior League baseball championships are underway in Kutno, Poland. The Netherlands powerhouse had a bye today after sweeping their first three games by a combined score of 31-2. Belgium beat Poland today 10-9 in extra innings. Details of the schedule and results can be found here. The Brussels Bomber went 2 for 3 with a walk, ably fulfilling his role as leadoff batter.

Precocious Blogger

The Globe today profiled a young up-and-comer in the baseball scene: 12-year-old blogger Alex Reimer.

The article is better than the blog, but this kid definitely has smarts, eloquence and confidence. Perhaps too much of the last; his blog profile reads:
Hey, I'm a 12 year- old sports genius. You can hear me on Sports Bloggers Live regularly or on MLB radio.

7.08.2005

Stiff Upper Lip

What are the British made of? This is the fundamental question which must be answered to evaluate the likely fallout from the London bombings yesterday. Compare the response to 9/11 among Americans (blue-staters especially) with that of the Spanish after their bombings. The U.S. responded by circling wagons, approving of their president, and being resolved that we would not be cowed by violence. There is a fundamental unwillingness to be bullied deep in the American psyche.

Not so in Spain. The populace took one look at the carnage caused by terrorists in Madrid, and decided that it wasn't worth the cost to remain in Iraq. This, of course, gave power and confidence to the terrorists, who know now that some countries, at least, can be scared off with just a single bloody attack. They're hoping that the London bombing will have the same effect. Perversely, the Spanish cowardice is a contributing cause to the London attack: if all nations responded to attacks with toughness, most attacks would peter out. Notice that Al-Qaeda has not attacked either the U.S. or Israel since 9/11, though those countries are its rhetorical whipping-boys. Instead, they deliver their bombs where the effect will be fear and retreat.

So will the Britons retain their fabled stoic calm, and unite behind Blair in the war on terror? Or will they desert their leaders and look for a quick exit from Iraq, Afghanistan, and their position of international responsibility?

We have nothing to fear but fear itself.

7.07.2005

Too Darn Hot

You know it's time to move north when your cell phone sustains water damage after you use it outdoors on a sunny day. It's so hot and humid that my ear sweat was enough to soak into the phone! Gross.

7.05.2005

Rockin' Fourth

Just got back this morning from a terrific Independence Day weekend in New England. Saturday, hung out at Ponkapoag with my sister (whom I hadn't seen in six months), and enjoyed a halcyon summer's day - swimming, sailing, walking, eating, playing "Beckon". Just like old times. Sunday, hung out with Ali Baba - we hit up a piss-poor Chowderfest, where 7 out of 10 participating restaurants had canceled. Apparently the Red Tide is no joke. The Harbor was nice, though, and after dinner at my place we went down to the Boston Pops dress rehearsal, which has everything the real celebration has except the fireworks and crushing crowds. On the Fourth, went out with Ali, Dubya, and Stevo to Connecticut for the afternoon - excellent times all around! I'm still digesting the steak tips, and the Boat Parade was pretty cool (and gave new meaning to the word "float"). The one downside: two overnight drives, though Mistie split the driving with me, so I'm only half-dead at work today.

Anyway, hope y'all had as good a holiday as I did.

7.01.2005

O'CONNOR RETIRES!

Fifteen minutes ago, the Post broke the story that Justice Sandra Day O'Connor announced her retirement this morning in a letter to the President! O'Connor has long been a key swing vote in a split court, and the opportunity to replace her before the conservative Rehnquist raises the possibility of a conservative majority. Bush's "short list" of potential nominees is rumored to include no women, and there's always been pressure to replace justices with similar individuals. (One president got in trouble for giving a "Jewish seat" to a gentile).

I believe it was James Taranto who suggested that a smart strategy for the president would be to use one of the recently approved compromise nominees as a Supreme Court appointment, since it would put the Democrats on the Gang of 14 in a very uncomfortable position. Since two of those justices were women, and since the fight to replace a moderate with a conservative will be tougher than if Bush were merely replacing already-conservative Rehnquist, this might well come to pass.

It's going to be an exciting summer in Washington!