Peace in Central Africa?

Rwandese Hutu guerrillas operating in the DR Congo have responded to a tougher UN presence by surrendering and renouncing the 1994 genocide for the first time. I don't know enough about the Congo conflict to have a truly intelligent opinion, but I do know enough to be skeptical about any apparent positive development.

It's tragic when a news story has to end with a footnote such as the following:

The last invasion in 1998 sparked a wider war, which sucked in six neighbouring countries and led to the deaths of an estimated 3 million people.

What's even more tragic is that the Congo war is not only a footnote to the BBC article, but is a footnote to history. Years from now, more people will remember Terri Schiavo's death, or the deaths of a few thousand in Israel/Palestine, than will remember what was probably the most costly war since Vietnam or Korea, and possibly since World War II. (Source: some guy, who also has an alternate history of the U.S.A. and C.S.A. on his site).

I Agree With Corey

Christians at my alma mater ran an "I Agree With" evangelistic campaign this month, with excellent results. Check out a campus paper write-up, and quotes from our friend Meredith. Props to Mer, Corey, and all the others who are spreading the love of Christ at NU!

A Small Step for Israel, A Long Schlepp for Religious Freedom

Israel's high court today ruled that for purposes of being Jewish, overseas conversion is an acceptable alternative to being converted under the sanctioned (and Shas Party-controlled rabinate). This is a very small step for Israel in the long road toward religious freedom. InstantReplay will be pleased if the day ever comes when Israelis are free to worship according to the dictates of their conscience, or if the day comes when Israel abandons that whole modernist concept of the racially pure Nation.

Governing From Behind

The CSMonitor has a commonsensicle piece on the job market of the future, in which "qualities such as ethical judgment, compassion, intuition, responsibility, and creativity will be what stand out in an automated world." This is no surprise to anyone working in an office. No longer are humans needed in repetitive-motion jobs; problem-solving is expected on lower levels, and people are expected to operate a variety of business machines. Another trend, highlighted in the NYTimes, is less job security. In case you hadn't noticed, "it's no longer lifetime employment like it was 30 years ago."

A corrollary to both of these phenomena, however, is that as business changes, the government is falling further and further behind the general business environment. In most agencies, careerism is alive and well, and the structure is more reminiscent of a 1950's factory than a 2000's service corporation. Careerism naturally attracts those who lack confidence in their own work skills; those most confident (and usually most capable) are more willing to take a risk for the sake of a raise - or simply for the sake of change. One of the most effective government workers in my own office is departing tomorrow for the American Red Cross. The inefficient, incompetant ones? They're not going anywhere.

At the same time, the government is updating its technology - almost always using contractors like myself to do the work - and tying itself in a Gordion Knot of systems and capabilities that it is not designed to handle. So what do we have to look forward to in the 21st century? A forward-moving private sector and a backwards-looking public sector.

Pitchers' Purgatory

Red Sox management is reportedly considering sentencing Byung-Hyun "One-Finger" Kim to a year of hard labor in the rarified air of Coors Field for his "sundry crimes and misdemeanors". The only thing wrong with this deal is that the Sox still have to eat most of his $6 million boondoggle contract.

SOXAPALOOZA 2005

As the clock at PatSox ticks down to Opening Day, InstantReplay is getting its sox on for the new season. Anyone in the DC area is welcome at InstantReplayCentral on Sunday to catch the game on ESPN. With cherry blossoms beginning to bloom in DC, it's time to bone up on America's Pastime. Here are some resources for the coming season:

• Red Sox schedule
• Red Sox roster (to which it looks like they're about to add Mike Myers)
• Diamond Angle's player-by-player preview
• SI's team-by-team profiles
• ESPN's featured search of "steriod jokes"

Not to be outdone by Thadeus, InstantReplay's own predictions for the 2005 season are as follows:

AL WEST	AL CENTRAL	AL EAST
Anaheim	Minnesota	Boston
Texas	Cleveland	New York (wild)
Oakland	Detroit	Baltimore
Seattle	Chicago	Tampa Bay
	Kansas City	Toronto
	AL Championship:	Boston over New York
NL WEST	NL CENTRAL	NL EAST
Los Angeles	St. Louis	Atlanta
Arizona	Chicago	New York (wild)
San Francisco	Pittsburgh	Florida
San Diego	Cincinatti	Philadelphia
Colorado	Houston	Washington
	Milwaukee
	NL Championship:	Los Angeles over Atlanta
	World Series:	Boston over Los Angeles

InstantReplay will stick with it's tradition of predicting some seemingly random Red Sox stats that will likely be key indicators of how well the Olde Towne Team fares. Please add your predictions for these same stats in the comments...

1. Number of games started by Jason Varitek: 132
2. Total home runs by "Manny Ortez": 78
3. Staff complete games: 5
4. Bellhorn's walk-to-strikeout ratio: 1 to 1.81
5. Record in one-run games: 19-16
6. Date that Kevin Youkilis is traded: July 28
7. Damon's pitches per plate appearance: 4.10
8. Number of players on post-season roster who are not on Opening Day roster or DL: 4

Post your predictions below!

UPDATE

Now that Blogger is working properly, I've given the blogroll its spring makeover.
New features: All-Baseball, Call of the Green Monster (aka "Call"), and Over the Monster
Returning feature: Soxaholix
Coming soon: Invincible Summer (aka post-metamorphosis "Bambino's Curse")

Please visit these fine purveyors of baseball and Red Sox knowledge.

Update II

Here are predictions made by commenters:

Thaddeus McMonster:
1. 144
2. 69
3. 10
4. 1 to 2
5. 24-14
6. Youkilis will not be traded.
7. 3.85
8. 3, one star (Ben Sheets, who will be the person with most of the complete games) and 2 random relief pitchers

Parker:
Number of games started by Jason Varitek: 130 (140 appearances)
Total home runs by "Manny Ortez": 81
Staff complete games: 6
Bellhorn's walk-to-strikeout ratio: 1 to 1.5
Record in one-run games: 21-11
Date that Hanley Ramirez is traded: July 28 (for ben sheets)
Damon's pitches per plate appearance: 3.8
Number of players on post-season roster who are not on Opening Day roster or DL: 4

No Referendum

Ariel Sharon won a major victory by defeating a bill in the Knesset to put the Gaza withdrawal to a plebiscite. His margin of victory - 72 to 39 - was big enough for the withdrawal to proceed now with more confidence than before. A last-minute appeal to Rabbi Ovadia Yosef* failed to sway the aging Shas patriarch, and most of the religious votes stuck with Sharon in opposition.

* Rabbi Yosef is the subject of one of my favorite "news" pieces of all time, from the 2000 election.

Zimbabwe Next?

Speaking out on Easter Sunday, Zimbabwe's Catholic Archbishop Pius Ncube called for a peaceful uprising after upcoming polls, which are sure to be fraudulent. Meanwhile, the opposition MDC party is pushing hard to get voters out. Both sides of the coin are vital: they have to give dictator Mugabe the opportunity to respect the election, and only prosecute him in the court of public protest if he follows through on his pattern of corruption and kleptocracy.

Rotisserie

Ever wonder where the term "rotisserie league" comes from? The CS Monitor sports blog has the answer:

In case you ever wondered about the origin of this peculiar name, it stems from the birth of these stats-based leagues at La Rotisserie, a French restaurant in New York where the founding fathers of the first league launched the craze 25 years ago.

Now you know!

Sudan Remains

Don Cheadle, fresh off his stellar performance in Hotel Rwanda, lends his celebrity power to the continuing crisis in Darfur. I have to admit he's right: amidst the happenings in Iraq, Lebanon, Ukraine, the tsunami, and now Kyrgyzstan, it was too easy to forget Darfur. In fact, it's in danger of becoming not the next Rwanda, but the next South Sudan, where civil war held back progress and cost lives for decades.

Cheadle and co-author John Prendergast go balls to the wall in their prescription for action:

Eighth, the U.S. often argues that it cannot do more because China and Russia will veto more potent multilateral action on Darfur. But no one has tested this threat. It is time to play diplomatic chicken with Beijing and Moscow. The U.S. and U.K. should press for a vote on a strong U.N. Resolution with real consequences and dare anyone to support crimes against humanity by vetoing it...

The only antidote to this searing truth--the only way the U.S. will take the kind of leadership necessary to end the horrors for Fatima and her people--is for there to be a political cost to inaction. As American citizens increasingly raise their voices and write their letters about Darfur, the temperature has indeed risen. But not enough. We need to make it a little warmer, a little more uncomfortable for those politicians who would look away. Just a few more degrees. Just a few more thousand letters. It is, frankly, that simple.

You can contact your U.S. Representative here and your Senator here.

Good Friday

When Jesus had spoken these words, he went forth with his disciples over the brook Cedron, where was a garden, into the which he entered, and his disciples. And Judas also, which betrayed him, knew the place: for Jesus ofttimes resorted thither with his disciples. Judas then, having received a band [of men] and officers from the chief priests and Pharisees, cometh thither with lanterns and torches and weapons. Jesus therefore, knowing all things that should come upon him, went forth, and said unto them, Whom seek ye? They answered him, Jesus of Nazareth. Jesus saith unto them, I am [he]. And Judas also, which betrayed him, stood with them. As soon then as he had said unto them, I am [he], they went backward, and fell to the ground. Then asked he them again, Whom seek ye? And they said, Jesus of Nazareth. Jesus answered, I have told you that I am [he]: if therefore ye seek me, let these go their way: That the saying might be fulfilled, which he spake, Of them which thou gavest me have I lost none.

Then Simon Peter having a sword drew it, and smote the high priest's servant, and cut off his right ear. The servant's name was Malchus. Then said Jesus unto Peter, Put up thy sword into the sheath: the cup which my Father hath given me, shall I not drink it? Then the band and the captain and officers of the Jews took Jesus, and bound him, And led him away to Annas first; for he was father in law to Caiaphas, which was the high priest that same year. Now Caiaphas was he, which gave counsel to the Jews, that it was expedient that one man should die for the people.

And Simon Peter followed Jesus, and [so did] another disciple: that disciple was known unto the high priest, and went in with Jesus into the palace of the high priest. But Peter stood at the door without. Then went out that other disciple, which was known unto the high priest, and spake unto her that kept the door, and brought in Peter. Then saith the damsel that kept the door unto Peter, Art not thou also [one] of this man's disciples? He saith, I am not. And the servants and officers stood there, who had made a fire of coals; for it was cold: and they warmed themselves: and Peter stood with them, and warmed himself. The high priest then asked Jesus of his disciples, and of his doctrine. Jesus answered him, I spake openly to the world; I ever taught in the synagogue, and in the temple, whither the Jews always resort; and in secret have I said nothing. Why askest thou me? ask them which heard me, what I have said unto them: behold, they know what I said. And when he had thus spoken, one of the officers which stood by struck Jesus with the palm of his hand, saying, Answerest thou the high priest so? Jesus answered him, If I have spoken evil, bear witness of the evil: but if well, why smitest thou me? Now Annas had sent him bound unto Caiaphas the high priest.

And Simon Peter stood and warmed himself. They said therefore unto him, Art not thou also [one] of his disciples? He denied [it], and said, I am not. One of the servants of the high priest, being [his] kinsman whose ear Peter cut off, saith, Did not I see thee in the garden with him?

Peter then denied again: and immediately the cock crew.

John 18:1-27

Worthwhile & Strong

Worthless & Weak has been visited by the Fab Five... or maybe ex-con Martha Stewart... or accessibility guru Jakub Nielsen... or somebody. Anyway, it's had a jaw-dropping makeover, leaving its dark past behind and stepping into the readable, linked-up, illustrated, tracked-back future. Congrats, Thadeus - welcome to the light side!

Kyrgyzstan Update

The Kyrgyz opposition has really taken over. They've reconvened the old legislature, the one from before recent (allegedly corrupt) elections. Key ministers and an interim president have been appointed. It is all happening so fast that the BBC has a new story with an 'old' photo. They also have a nifty timeline:

• 0725 GMT: Thousands of protesters march towards presidential palace
• 0830 GMT: Clashes reported in Bishkek between pro- and anti-government forces
• 0954 GMT: Protesters storm presidential compound
• 1125 GMT: Opposition says it has taken control of state TV
• 1257 GMT: Opposition leader Felix Kulov reported released from prison
• 1350 GMT: Kulov makes TV appeal for President Akayev to step down
• 1409 GMT: Russia urges Kyrgyzstan to return to "lawful" path
• 1543 GMT: Opposition leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev says Akayev has left the country
• 1543 GMT: Kyrgyzstan's Supreme Court annuls February election
• 1820 GMT: Ishinbai Kadyrbekov appointed interim leader

What's an outsider to do? The regional press is wringing its hands, but even the Russians can't put the kibosh on events occuring this quickly. We'll all just continue to watch and wait and see.

Kyrgyzstan Too?

The worldwide democratic revolution seems to be continuing, now in Central Asia. In Bishkek a popular uprising sweeping opposition mobs into the presidential palace, some are getting excited at the prospects for a new government in Kyrgyzstan. The BBC has a prescient article entitled Why Kyrgyzstan Matters.

One of the questions that emerges from that article and others is whether this revolution deserves to be called "democratic", at least in the positive, modern sense. It certainly reflects hope, but in a country considered reasonably democratic, semi-violent revolution is not usually the desired mode of change.

Can democracy happen suddenly and succeed? Yes - Poland, Slovakia, et al are great examples of that. But most strong democracies developed gradually and with relative stability. Thus, I do not have high hopes for Kyrgyzstan. None of its neighbors are democratic, and all of them are more powerful than the little republic. Furthermore, the opposition does not have strong, well-trained leadership or a unified purpose.

People-power is great, but only when it serves a constructive purpose. There is little virtue in violently throwing out one corrupt semi-democratic regime to replace it with another corrupt semi-democratic regime. A government following the will of the people alone is not enough to qualify as a democracy; the transfers of power must also be regular and peaceful.

Idiots

What do Muammar Qaddafi, the Boston Red Sox, the Palestinians, and the Israelis all have in common? They are all idiots.

The flamboyant Libyan had all the Arab heads of state in stitches by ranting about idiocy at the Arab summit in Algiers. The Daily Star reports:

As usual he was accompanied by his female bodyguards and brought with him a tent that he pitched near his official residence just outside the Algerian capital.

InstantReplay thinks Muammar has a great career on Comedy Central awaiting him when he gets tired of the whole ruler-of-a-desert-nation thing.

A New Obstacle

Ariel Sharon's government is raising a new obstacle to a lasting peace. Rather than freezing or dismantling settlements, they are looking to perform one of the greatest expansions in settlement history, adding 3,500 units to Maale Adummim, a Jerusalem suburb built on stolen Palestinian land. The idea is to fill in the space between the existing settlement and other Jerusalem neighborhoods (also built on stolen land, and annexed). This will make Maale Adummim itself more secure, but everything else - both Palestinian and Israeli - will become less secure.

One of these days, the U.S. needs to enforce its agreements with Israel as it does so zealously with other countries. Until then, we will continue to be dragged along into unwise policies that do no good to the U.S. and earn us enemies. Tolerating Israel's abbrogration of its peace agreements is the #1 best way to get suicide bombers to attack America. Fools.

Equal Time

OK, here's a bone for all you Hardvarks: Who says economics can't be sexy? The NYTimes (again) has a long story on some very cool socio-economic research being done by a Harvard researcher just a few years older than me. His rags-to-riches story and clear-eyed approach to race problems is a novelty and an exception in the politically corrected Harvard atmosphere. Even the Times admits that no white could do the work he's doing. For instance, he's looking at the possibility that selectivity by slave traders (and the effects of nature) could have altered the African-American gene pool to the degree that genetics would explain much of the difference in life expectancy between blacks and others. Of course, what the article doesn't say is that two-thirds of the six-year lifespan discrepancy is due to young deaths; blacks who reach age 30 are only at a two-year disadvantage to their white counterparts. Anyway, interesting article if you've got the time.

Harvard Sucks On

As if we didn't have enough reasons to despise Harvard University, their socialist administrators and students have thrown their weight against two entrepreneurial undergrads who hope to make money by creating jobs and cleaning apartments. Among the arguments against DormAid:

• Hiring someone to clean dorm rooms is a convenience, but it is also an obvious display of wealth that would establish a perceived, if unspoken, barrier between students of different economic means.
• Besides, said Mr. Slack, whose own room was strewn with clothes and beer cans on a recent visit, "I kind of revel in being able to live sort of slovenly."
• Harvard officials stopped him, vetoing DormAid because of concerns about insurance, security, the Fair Labor Standards Act and elitism, said Judith H. Kidd, an associate dean.
• They agreed to change the company's name from DorMaid to DormAid because, Mr. Kopko said, some Harvard officials said "maid" was "sexist and demeaning."
• "I definitely wouldn't tell my parents about it," Mr. Novy said. "They were students in the 60's, and they wouldn't have ordered such a service for political reasons. They would have probably done a sit-in in front of the apartments."

Wow. What morons. They think the word "maid" is sexist and demeaning. I wonder how that makes maids feel? And they want the right to live in a slovenly manner. I wonder how that makes Slovenes feel? But seriously, the entrepreneurs say that most of their $200,000 revenues at Harvard will go to higher-than-normal wages for, um, maids. But the hyper-socialists don't want to let these women work: they'd rather make sure that everyone is equally unemployed, equally slovenly, and equally irrelevantly erudite.

Judge Has Cojones

InstantReplay applauds Judge James Whittemore of the Tampa Federal District Court for stopping the frothy stampede over the constitution caused by the Terri Schiavo madness. Both houses of Congress and the president approved an unprecedented (and unconstitutional) measure of giving the Federal courts jurisdiction over a state case. The NYTimes editorial board is right on target when it writes, "The new law tramples on the principle that this is 'a nation of laws, not of men'". Judge Whittemore stood up against the combined might of the other two branches of government and put his career in jeopardy by refusing to hear the case. Thank God for an independent judiciary.

Road Trip

Terrific road trip this past weekend, down to visit my cousin & her new baby in Raleigh and my friends at a Model Arab League in Spartanburg. I was away for 42 hours; of those I drove 17 and slept 3. Lots of great stories (and no time to tell them), like almost getting in a fight at a South Carolina dive bar and hunting for gas at less than $1.90.

Rutgers University

Adding to my list of acceptances is Rutgers University. It's fitting that a school in New Jersey would be the one to stoop to this level of sleaze in their acceptance letter:

I am also pleased to inform you that you were ranked very highly for a fellowship. As soon as one becomes available, we will notify you at once. In the meantime, if you receive any offers from other institutions, please let us know. The more details you can provide, the better.

This reminded me uncannily of Matthew 2:7-8.

Syrian Regime is Overthrown!

Or not. A totally unfounded blogosphere rumor (begun here) has had Syrian blogs buzzing all day, and even reached MSM reporters. Josh Landis writes it up in an interesting "life cycle of a rumor" analysis.

An-Wahr

Hilarious "conversation with God" about ANWR drilling on Watchblog. The divine comedy points out the basic reason for drilling there:

Me: But there is much consternation and many wails still about the thing called tundra. It shall be scarred! Is the tundra not a precious creature or item like Thy sacred Seraphim, or Thy sacred Ark, or the Holy Mountain in or near Alaska where Jor-El spoke to Superman? Or is it like the winged serpent Thou had Moses raise in the desert, or----

The LORD: Tundra is freezing cold treeless grassy plain.

Me: Cold. . . grassy. . . plain?

The LORD: Cold grassy treeless plain. Usually frozen hard grassy ground. All over my Earth's Arctic regions is this endless tundra. Rolling, treeless plain in Siberia and arctic North America. Cubits and cubits and cubits of it.

Kudos to Matthew Hogan for penning that gem!

Congress Steps Up to the Plate

Bud Selig is getting his constipated hindquarters spanked by Congress in hearings today. Former Major Leaguer and current Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning joined California Rep. Harry Waxman in threatening to create their own laws if baseball doesn't pump some steroids into its regs. What does this mean? Probably very little: steroids are on their way out, pure baseball is coming back, and all Congress can do at this point is slam the door behind the 'roids.

A Decent Proposal

In the political atmosphere surrounding Social Security, the best thing that can be done at this time is brainstorming. There simply aren't enough options on the table yet, and it's obvious that no one position has the support of the citizens or their representatives. The President's proposal doesn't make actuarial and financial sense, nor does the Democrats' assertion that it is not yet time to act on Social Security hold water.

So what do we need? Ideas. Lots of ideas. Here are mine:

First off, what are our goals for Social Security? I see two: to eliminate senior poverty and to provide a mandated pension to force people to save some of their earnings. Social Security is currently straddling the line between a welfare program for the elimination of poverty and a pension account. If we split these two purposes up and make them financially independent, we can make each work on its own.

The welfare portion (let's call it 'Elder Security') would be means-tested, and would ensure that all seniors receive enough support from the government, in the form of cash, to maintain a basic standard of food and shelter. Accomodation would be made for those who own their own houses but have no income or savings. Elder Security would be received by poor seniors regardless of their contribution to the system. It would be funded by real-time payroll taxes on a flat or progressive scale, unlike SocSec's current regressive tax scale.

The most difficult thing about Elder Security would be the means-testing, but it can be done. This might be a combination of looking at lifetime earnings and disqualifying those who give away their savings to family members or sell their houses to their kids for a dollar, etc. We could count on the smallness of the payments to prevent most seniors from trying to cheat to get it. Also, I would recommend one-time means testing, so that if a retiree decides to go back to work part-time or inherits money he is not penalized by losing his Elder Security benefits. Lastly, it would include a small location adjustment similar to that used by the Federal government for its own employees. This cannot be a perfect system, but with proper avenues for appealing means-test decisions and strong auditing it can achieve our goal of eliminating senior poverty.

The other part of the system would be a pension fund, which would consist of private-contribution accounts. Let's call it "Workers' Pensions". There would be a minimum contribution and a maximum, within which earners could decide how much to save. The savings would be untaxed; the payouts would be taxed as normal income. A variety of savings plans would be available, varying from a safe but tame interest-bearing account (for those who like SocSec as it is) to the equivalent of a mid-risk stock portfolio (for those who want greater return and are willing to accept greater risk). The funds would be the legal possession of Uncle Sam, and thus untouchable by bankruptcy, etc. Shortly before someone retires, some or all of his funds would be transferred to an interest-bearing account to keep them secure. Retirees could decide to keep some of their money in low - or mid-risk accounts if they so desire, but an ample minimum will be held in the safest accounts.

To deal with the uncertainty of age-of-death, retirees would be able to collect benefits at the same steady rate until they passed away, regardless of how long they live. To fund those who live long, those who die young will be subject to a death tax on their pension funds. This tax would be automatically adjusted to meet needs.

This entire system would be phased in over time, so that workers under age 30 would be the only ones expected to live entirely on their pensions. Taxes would be adjusted to meet the Elder Security payments - in the long run, they would be adjusted downward over time as better-off Social Security recipients (the last of whom would retire in 2047) die off. Until 2047, a temporary tax hike would most likely be necessary to meet the costs of baby boomers retiring; this could be achieved by raising or abolishing the $95,000 maximum on payroll taxes.

The retirement age would be set flexibly: recipients of either program could begin withdrawing benefits at age 67 (per current law) or could choose to delay retirement. If they chose the latter, their Elder Security or Workers' Pension payouts would be increased slightly, in accordance with actuarial life-expectation, so that they do not forfeit earnings by working longer. Of course, a 67-year-old could choose to receive Workers' Pension while still working, but our progressive income tax structure would automatically incur a small penalty.

An unavoidable cost of the new program would be added bureaucracy, but that's a necessary part of the package.

This article was originally written for Watchblog

Lebanese Strike Back

In the first of the weekly Monday marches since the massive pro-Syrian demonstration last Tuesday, the pro-Lebanese crowds surged massively through downtown Beirut. I'm amazed at how the rules to this game are so radically different than the rules to the "game" of the fifteen-year civil war, and yet the goals and players are very much the same. That is the biggest testament to change in the post-Soviet, post-Iraq world: both sides see democracy as the only safe and legal way to legitimate their rule.

Also, as Josh Landis reported a few days ago, the Assad has promised to fully withdraw, and the wires today report that Syrian intelligence offices in Beirut are being vacated. By acting on the strength of the Hezbollah demonstration, Syria has managed to quietly ease out, bridges intact, because they did so in a time of strength, not weakness.

Now who was it who said that demonstration could be a Syrian parachute?

The Law-Abiding Citizen

InstantReplay (in an email): "Dude, you've *got* to have one of your students bring a sample of qatt home from Yemen this summer!"

The Law-Abiding Citizen: "You just advocated, over an email account I guarantee is monitored under new sections of the U.S. patriot act, I encourage international drug smuggling. I WILL DO NO SUCH THING. I AM A LAW ABIDING CITIZEN, AND A STAUNCH SUPPORTER OF THE U.S. PATRIOT ACT, JOHN ASHCROFT, and GEORGE W. BUSH."

Three to Go

I am still waiting on three grad schools to report back whether they want me or not: Boston College, Rutgers, and UConn. Given my acceptance with tuition waiver to Rochester, he last two are pretty much out of the running, because of location and program quality, respectively. BC is still hanging on, as I have put off making the hard decision to continue my exile from Boston until I've actually heard from them. If they turn me down or fail to give me a stipend, it will make the decision to go to Rochester much easier.

Who Is Chuck Hagel?

Short answer: Charles Timothy Hagel, the senior U.S. Senator from Nebraska, currently in his second term. He's a decorated 'Nam vet and an experienced executive in the public and private sectors.

Hagel's name has been bandied about as a presidential possible, and Schtaple got my attention when he - a confirmed liberal - said he might have to support the Republican Hagel if the latter ran for President. (If Schtaple ran for President, I doubt he'd get Hagel's support.)

So who is Hagel? He's been in the news recently for a few things:

• Proposing a 1-year increase in the retirement age for people retiring after 2022, as part of a larger Social Security plan. This is a very sensible idea, and has gotten more press than his also-sensible Social Security plan because reporters have small minds.
• He's critical of Bush's choice of firebrand John Bolton as U.S. Ambassador to the UN.
• He's sponsored legislation aimed at closing loopholes and lowering the per-farm maximum on subsidies.

OnTheIssues.com rates him as conservative on social issues, pro-business, anti-Kyoto, for free trade, pro-military, pro-immigration, for low taxes. He votes along the party line most of the time, and supports sensible, consistent policies.

His distinctiveness really emerges looking at international relations. His willingness to say what he thinks and criticize the administration on Iraq has earned him a reputation as a free thinker. The Washington Times says he was "a poster child for the Kerry campaign", and accuses him of working with McCain and Lugar to turn the Foreign Relations Committee into an obstructionist body. For those of us who think Bush needs a little more obstruction in his life, that's high praise.

On the other hand, is Hagel really anything more than a mouth on wheels? Newspapers treat him with kid gloves because he's always good for a controversial quote. Last year he recommended bringing back the draft. He's the Curt Schilling of politics: a good performer, but somewhat overrated by the press because of his willingness to talk to them.

Will he ever become president? I doubt it; he has too much of a paper trail. Should he be president? Maybe. I'll go on record as one who believes that he would do better than Bush, but I'm not convinced that he can parlay his convictions into effective policies. It's easy to represent a unitary constituency like Nebraska, but if he goes national, he'll find that some of his positions - on immigration or social security, perhaps - have to be sacrificed to bring in the allies a president needs to be effective. That would sully his most attractive asset: the intelligent, consistent worldview that guides his policy choices.

Chuck Hagel for president? We'll see.

Syrian Parachute?

Josh Landis' post about the reaction in Damascus to the mega-demonstration held in Beirut yesterday to show support for Syria brings home the importance of Hezbollah in the political process and the extent to which the Syrians are convinced that they've done the right thing by occupying Lebanon.

My reaction to the pro-Syrian rally, however, is not as negative as that of many Lebanophiles. I think Nasrallah's rally could be the parachute that President Assad needs to get out of Lebanon without losing face at home. He's got the momentum now to hold a big event with Nasrallah, hand him the keys to the city, and say that Lebanon has graduated and the Syrians are pulling out - of their own volition, of course. It gives him a chance to lose without looking like a loser. And that would make us all winners.

Just Like the Matrix

It's man against machine. The machines are hunting for us, and will deliver a fatal payload of spam when they catch us. InstantReplay has joined the blogospheric war against email address-harvesting bots by adding a SpamPoison button. Sexy, isn't it? Just like the Matrix.

Hat tip to La Shawn.

Letter from Lebanon

My aunt Hind from Lebanon emailed me today:

Dear Salim,

Thank you for your thoughts and your care.

We are all ok, we thanks God for that, and we hope for the best for our country.

Actually now is the only chance we have to clean our country from all the bad people and from the Syrian occupation. Definitely it is not so easy but we have to take the risk or the chance or whatever we can call it.

All the actions are being held in Beirut, demonstration and so on. You have every night around 10,000 persons camping in down town Beirut besides that every Monday there is a big demonstration on which we are all contributing.

We will keep up these demonstrations until we achieve all our goals and have a free country. Of course everything is going on in peace, there is nothing to worry about except to pray for God to help us and to free us from the ignorance and the selfishness of some of our leaders.

I will keep you updated in case of any progress other than the one you are reading in the newspaper.

Thanks Salim for being with us in such moments.

Love

Hind

Of course, not all Lebanese agree with her. The big news today is of big counter-protests, as the country seems to be breaking down along the old socieeconomic lines of Christians & Sunna versus Shi'a. The best thing for the country, imho, would be a confederal system giving the Shi'a-dominated Beqaa Valley broad self-governing powers, and diluting the impact of the Syrians there in the rest of the country.

Quote of the Day

"Men aren't actually any more visually attracted than women; it's just that women are beautiful and men aren't much to look at." - Ioussouffou

My Newest Cousin

Introducing ten-day old Hannah Hope. Congrats to her parents (my cousin Nicole and hubby Mike) for kicking off the next generation!

Social Security

First time I've seen a non-partisan discussion of the Social Security proposal; courtesy of Victor at The Dead Parrot Society.

The Arab Revolt Is in Beirut

In one of my all-time favorite movies Colonel T.E. Lawrence (Peter O'Toole) says, "the Arab revolt is in Deraa"*. Today, the Arab revolt is in Beirut, and all we can do in the West is follow. I intended to write another news round-up but Dr. Joshua Landis (aka Our man in Damascus) beat me too it.

One piece of news has come out just recently, however. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is planning a rare address to his parliament detailing his withdrawal plans. He is expected to meet the terms agreed to at Ta'if in 1989, pulling back to the Beqaa Valley, Hezbollah's home turf. This may cause the Lebanese revolution to lose momentum, since a complete pullout would leave Hezbollah, an opponent with far less to lose, on the flank of Christian and Sunni Lebanese.

The same Post article referred to above also quotes President Bush, who is using this as an opportunity to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the French:

"When the United States and France say withdraw, we mean complete withdrawal, no half-hearted measures," Bush said.

The French responded that when they said "withdraw", they meant after a few drinks and a hearty meal.

* Colonial English accent mandatory

Boston University

The news isn't as good from BU, so I'm glad I heard from Rochester first.

I am writing to inform you that the Boston University Economics Department has recommended to the Dean of the Graduate School that you be admitted to our Ph.D. program for the fall of 2005. While we are very impressed with your academic record, the Financial Aid Committee has had many requests for a very limited amount of aid and, as a result, we are unable to offer you financial aid. I am pleased that your application has met with the approval of our Admissions committee and hope that you will be able to pursue graduate study in this Department.

You will be receiving some additional communications from our department and a formal notification of admission from the graduate school in the days ahead. During this process, please do not hesitate to contact me if there are any questions regarding our program. I will be out of the office until March 21, but I will be happy to answer your questions at that time. Also, please plan to respond to our offer by May 15. I look forward to hearing from you.

Zero funding makes attendance almost equally unlikely. However, it's still an improvement on last year's flat refusal by the same school.

University of Rochester

I almost started crying at work when I got this email:

We are pleased to recommend to the Dean that you be admitted to our Ph.D. program in economics this fall and to receive a full waiver of tuition payments renewable each year dependent on academic standing. You should soon receive a letter from the Dean. My colleagues and I are very excited about the prospect of your joining our program. Although this offer does not carry a stipend, in the past students who have performed well do receive fellowship support in subsequent years of study.

We offer some unique opportunities. Rigorous training in economic theory starts in the first year as students take core courses in microeconomic and macro-economic theory, statistics and econometrics, and mathematical methods. More importantly, students have an opportunity to work very closely with a faculty that excels in research and teaching, and to interact with a set of very talented fellow students. We have a long tradition at Rochester of considering students as junior colleagues. In recent years we have limited the number of entering students to about 15 to 20, further enhancing the ability of students to interact with faculty. You will find this particularly important when you begin your own research. Thesis writers have an excellent opportunity to present their research, discuss ideas with faculty beyond their primary advisors, and with other students.

We believe Rochester provides an outstanding environment for economists to develop. A recent ranking of economic departments based on publications per faculty member puts us among the top five. But I would stress that we rank even higher when departments are ranked by publications of their graduate students. We have been very successful in placing our graduates in top academic and research institutions. Within recent years our students accepted faculty positions at Caltech, Boston University, Stanford, Northwestern, Carnegie Mellon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Chicago, Minnesota, Columbia, and a number of other highly rated programs.

If you have any questions about our program, please write or call me at (585) 275-5781. Additional information appears on our department’s web site at www.econ.rochester.edu. Other queries may be addressed to our graduate coordinator...

Rochester was my "reach" school; getting in there was more than I expected. Getting a scholarship is just jawdropping. Praise God - this is to His glory.

Johnny Damon Knows Who Zachary Taylor Was

We just thought that was newsworthy. Thanks to the Boston Globe.

Introducing: Syria Comment

As the situation in Lebanon warrants (and gains) more and more attention from InstantReplay and our readers, we are taking the liberty of adding the blog of Dr. Joshua Landis, Syria Comment, to the blogroll. Dr. Landis is an assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma, and is living in Damascus presently. Landis' blog is heavily cited in MSM, but we won't hold that against him. He's clearly well-connected and well-informed in Damascus' intellectual circles, and is a good, free source on what's going on inside the increasingly isolated Syrian kleptocracy.

Landis' best recent entry is a translation of an interview Bashar al-Assad did with Repubblica magazine.

Africans Leading the Way

AllAfrica has three top stories today highlighting the successes Africans are having in various fields crucial to effective self-government. This type of thing is needed for the African continent to finally become a functional part of the world community.

Dusty Namibia won honors from the U.N. for its efficiency in using environmental grants to meet conservation goals.

Civil society in Kenya is holding the government to account: a private legal group will prosecute a number of government ministers on corruption charges.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) approved Togo's new interim president. Last week, ECOWAS put the kibosh on a military coup without resorting to violence. New elections in Togo will be watched especially closely.

Catastrophic Success

David Ignatius has an accurate opinion piece in the Post today. He finds the reasonable middle ground on the argument about Bush's responsibility for the democratic stirrings in the Arab world.

There's an obscure branch of mathematics known as "catastrophe theory," which looks at how a small perturbation in a previously stable system can suddenly produce dramatic change... [In the Middle East] the old system that had looked so stable is ripping apart, with each beam pulling another down as it falls. The sudden stress that produced the catastrophe was the American invasion of Iraq two years ago. But this Arab power structure has been rotting at the joints for a generation. The real force that's bringing it down is public anger.

The Iraq invasion was the spark; Arab anger at their own regimes is the fuel.

While Lebanon and Egypt are the current headliners, reforms have not been confined to those two countries. Saudi Arabia held successful municipal elections for the first time, and there's momentum for more popular participation. The Gulf states have continued their cautious approach to constitutional government. Libya has climbed down and reopened to the West. Sudan made a loser's peace with its non-Muslim southern insurgency after many years. The Palestinians held their freest elections to date, and a balance was struck between the executive and legislative branches in the recent haggling that is more even than anything during the Arafat era. The revolution is not complete, but it is impressive, and is gaining rather than losing momentum.

Nickel Runs Double Reverse

The U.S. Mint is introducing a couple new nickels, with a chic close-up of Jefferson on the obverse and either a buffalo or a scenic view on the reverse.

Howard Dean is Passe

Not only is atheism passe, so is failed presidential candidate Howard Dean. Wrapped in a modernist mentality, his resucitated populism is having a hard time making the transition into a postmodern world.

Dean said, "I'm not going to have these right-wingers throw away our right to be tolerant...[and later] This is a struggle of good and evil. And we're the good."

Give a doctor a chance, you might say: its hard to get a clinical brain around this whole tolerance thing. But give a doctor the chairmanship of the DNC? Welcome to minority status, Dems, and make yourselves comfortable.

Atheism is Passe

Alister McGrath of Oxford has an interesting article on atheism in Christianity Today. His critiques are refreshingly different than those of Christian apologists; rather than being defensive about Christianity, he points out how the world has left atheism behind along with the rest of the trappings of rationalism. Some of his piece is almost mocking in its paternalism:

Rationalism, having quietly died out in most places, still lives on here. Yet Western culture has bypassed this aging little ghetto, having long since recognized the limitations of reason. The Enlightenment lives on for secularists. Atheism is wedded to philosophical modernity, and both are aging gracefully in the cultural equivalent of an old folks' home.

And, for those who find their tracts wearisome, the society thoughtfully provides a religious jokes page—though in poor taste, they carry a significantly higher intellectual content than the rest of the site. Here's an example of atheism's winsome arguments: Question: What's the difference between Jesus and a painting? Answer: It only takes one nail to hang a painting.

The joke makes my friends outside the church cringe. Yet I have the impression this is actually meant to persuade people of the intellectual and cultural superiority of a world without religion. Thompson clearly has a point.

Thanks to friend Fred for the link; he'll be attending Dr. McGrath's seminar at McLean Presby this weekend.